Europe Outlook: Unsettled Next Week, CFSv2 Changes Tune On June

Written by on June 7, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As you’ll be well aware, thunderstorms are now pushing northward over the UK along an active frontal zone associated with low pressure out at sea. Warm, humid air is fuelling these drenching storms, triggered by the front and cold air at 20,000ft.

Nothing much else to add as I’ve posted on this a lot in recent days and there’s no change to the forecast.

Here’s the surface chart off the GFS for this afternoon showing the heavy rains as the front meets the warm, humid air over the UK!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Where CAPE values are in red, these areas are likely to see the strongest storms according to the GFS.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s all lightning strikes since midnight across Europe. Note the two main clusters, along two active fronts. Same areas where CAPE is highest!

Courtesy/Credit: lightningmaps.org

Courtesy/Credit: lightningmaps.org

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The eastbound front crossing Ireland and the UK associated with the offshore low is pushing into some very warm, humid air.

This very warm pretty much everywhere across Europe today.

gfs-9-6

There enough SHEAR or twisting and turning with height for funnels or weak tornadoes to spin up.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Tomorrow is looking warm too across the board. Expect most inland parts to surpass 24C. Parts in interior Belgium and Netherlands as well as across Germany, Poland and Russia are likely to top 30-32C.

gfs-9-30

Into next week and with low pressure close by to the west of the UK, we hang on to the warm, humid southerly air flow with cooler mid and upper air and fronts continuing to keep things stormy throughout Western Europe as well as the east near the Poland-Russia border. Fine, mainly dry and very warm to hot in the heart of the continent.

Here’s the GFS surface charts through next week.

gfs---europe-48-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-72-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-96-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Latest CFSv2 for June and July. Big difference is the WETTER June for the UK. Still wet in the South, dry in the north and that’s where the warm and cool anomalies are already heading.

June Precipitation

euPrecMonInd1

Temperature

euT2mMonInd1

July Precipitation

euPrecMonInd2

Temperature

euT2mMonInd2
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