MJO Favouring Early Caribbean Development, Below Normal Temps Over Most Of US!

Written by on May 28, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

We have seen the response of the MJO over the East Pacific. Early development of hurricane Amanda west of Mexico and with signs of an early development on the Atlantic side within the next 10-15 days, one must look at the MJO.

Sure enough, The MJO enters phase 1-2 which becomes favourable over the Caribbean week 1-2.

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Supports Below Normal Temps

Note in the below charts, the cool over the central and eastern US. Although it’s been largely ‘seasonable’ warmth, there are signs of below normal temps through the first half of June with more trough than ridge and subpar upper heights.

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Increased Convection

Been a long time since I last showed this chart, but note the greens shifting east from Pacific into W Atlantic over the next 2 weeks, indicating lower that normal heights with increased convection.

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Early Caribbean Development

Here’s the latest GFS operational with that system I’ve been alluding to of late. Now although it’s wobbling back and fourth with position. Now WEST of Florida rather than east, the point is that the model is consistent at bringing some form of system up into the Southern US whether it be hybrid or pure tropical.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

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Taking the broader look at the nation overall at 254 hours, notice that while we’ve that system pushing into the Florida Panhandle, you can see the trough dropping south over the Lakes and that means an increased threat of major rains, widespread over the OH/TN Valleys and East. More flooding possible down into Alabama and Florida.

gfs384---conus-252-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Here’s another look at the CFSv2 precip for June.

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Good things is, if and when things turn drier mid to late summer in this rather soggy region, at least there will be enough moisture left behind, that drought shouldn’t be an issue into fall.

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