Europe Outlook: Unsettled Weekend Should Give Way Improvement Next Week

Written by on May 9, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Hope you’ve had a chance to watch the video from this morning as it looks at the fickle back and forth in the models and their contradiction of each other. Low pressure rules the UK pattern this weekend and that of course means a wet, windy, cool Saturday with sunshine and showers returning by Sunday and the unsettled theme increases over the Low Countries up into Denmark and southern Scandinavia.

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The low pulls away from the UK Sunday into Monday and Tuesday with further showers. It will remain on the cool side through the first half of next week with potential for patchy frost in rural areas as cooler air arrives and skies become clearer.

Here’s the ECM surface Saturday afternoon.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Monday the low is over Denmark and southern Sweden with a cool feed of northerly air down over the UK as a cool high pressure system drops south. Note the low’s leading edge has some fairly heavy rain pushing east over Poland into Russia.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 120 or Wednesday, the chilly high pushes northeast, making way for warmer air and ‘Azores’ origin high pressure for the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly, the newer run of the same model (ECMWF) I showed you in this morning’s video actually has the ridge, not trough as the dominant feature as we head towards next Friday now. Earlier this morning it was the trough but I did state that I didn’t believe this morning’s run, based on the fact the NAO is projected to go firmly positive. This is yet another perfect example of the ridge then flip to trough, then back to ridge scenario.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

This would make for warm, sunny conditions late next week really from Iberia up through the Low Countries, Denmark, likely Scandinavia as well as much of the UK, though Scotland may well be stuck under cloudier skies with some rain. All depends on the positioning of the boundary. Note the messy conditions over SE Europe.

The CFSv2 looking better on next week’s ridge and warmth as it now has the core right over the UK week 2 (16-22nd) just when the NAO is poised to go well into positive territory. The previous 500mb height anomaly chart off the CFSv2 had the ridge a little to the east. It may very well move west or east in coming runs.


That’s all for today but will have a new post available as of 9.15am tomorrow.

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