Europe Outlook: Atlantic Fronts Dominate From UK To Russia, Warm & Sunny Through Med

Written by on May 6, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We have a rather unsettled week of weather with the Atlantic door wide open as the upper pattern flattens allowing the free flow of low pressure to sweep across the UK into mainland Europe. This pattern is quite different to the last 2 weeks as high pressure is strong further south and that means more sunshine and warmth really from Portugal all the way east to Israel. Good for hard hit areas of Italy which have suffered significant flooding of late.

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That ridge should keep the bulk of the rain NORTH of the Mediterranean and as you can see, most of the rain seen through the next 168 hours is largely over the UK, Low Countries into southern Scandinavia as well as the Alps.

gfs-null--europe-168-A-totalqpf_white

The Alps as well as the ridge itself, should largely protect Italy and the Med from fronts making it down as far as the Med.

I pointed out the flat lined NAO, albeit a touch negative in yesterday’s video and how this has flattened out the N Atlantic jet. This will allow lows to move off North America and take a direct, nearly due east route into the UK and across N Europe while the ridge keeps vacationers happy further south.

nao_sprd2

Much of the overnight rain has now pushed out into the North Sea and the Low Countries and today should see sunshine and showers for much of Ireland and the UK but low pressure passing close to Scotland tomorrow (Wed) looks to made for a wetter, breezier day.

gfs---europe-48-A-mslpthkpcp_white

As you can see, while fronts are making their presence felt well into north-central Europe (as far east as the Baltic states and Russia), heights are still strong enough to slow down the eastward progression of the low that appears to hug the north coast of Scotland, this means Thursday will bring more ‘frequent’ showers and perhaps longer spells of rain as the sub 1000mb low remains just to the UK’s north.

gfs---europe-72-A-mslpthkpcp_white

It’s associated front will enhance shower activity through the Low Countries, Denmark, Germany, The Alps and with daytime warming sending temps into the high teens, low 20s, expect those shower clouds to develop into CB’s (cumulonimbus clouds).

Eventually that low pushes up through the Norwegian Sea with showers following behind by that is closely followed by another low that will bring further longer spells of rain along with increased wind to Ireland and the UK.

gfs---europe-96-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Another low spins directly over Scotland Saturday bringing wet and potentially quite windy conditions to most areas.

gfs---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

According to the ECMWF, that systems clears later Saturday into Sunday with a cool, showery northwesterly following but MORE organised wet and windy conditions are on the way but it looks like we get a brief respite Monday with a small area of high pressure separating the two lows.

gfs---europe-168-A-mslpthkpcp_white

Check out these temps through this week across the Mediterranean. Looking good for those perhaps taking an early summer vacation. What a difference compared to recent weeks down here…

Tue PM highs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Wed

gfs-TMP2m--med_sea-42-A-tmp2mc

Thu

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Looking ahead to next week and I see little difference. Looking unsettled still but did you notice the GFS ensemble has a positive trend with the NAO? Let’s keep our eyes on a large-scale RISE the height field opver W Europe perhaps later next week and the following week.

Will have a video later this afternoon. Stay tuned.

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