Italy Flooding, Spain Frost, Unsettled & Uncertain 1-2 Weeks Ahead!

Written by on May 4, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

From the foggy morning and wet afternoon here in central Scotland and frost in parts of Spain to the deadly flash flooding that hit La Merche, central Italy in the last 36 hours. Our overall pattern looks more unsettled through the upcoming 7 days and rather unclear in the 7-14 day period.

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This was the scene here at my house this morning. As of late morning and through the afternoon, cloud has been thick and low hanging with spells of rain, you head to be well south of the border in order to enjoy some warm sunshine.

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These were the scenes out of Italy thanks to the latest area of low pressure plaguing the central Mediterranean. This is one of many which has affected this region of Europe throughout the past winter and spring and I can understand why the CFSv2 has a cooler and wetter than normal summer ahead.

Source/Credit: EPA/Aljazeera

Source/Credit: EPA/Aljazeera

Thanks to the settled, clear and more importantly, dry air mass in place over Iberia, we saw strong radiational cooling both yesterday morning and this morning which allowed for some rather cold lows for early May.

Check out these lows from this morning over parts of Spain. Chart tweeted earlier by Meteorologist Steph Ball. (follow her on twitter @MeteoGib)

Source/Credit: AEMET via Steph Ball

Source/Credit: AEMET via Steph Ball

Thanks to strong sunshine and dry air, temperatures have recovered nicely this afternoon, particularly across southern Spain where the temperature is well into the upper 20s and low 30s.

This week ahead sees the return of more Atlantic weather across Ireland, UK and much of western Europe. Areas of low pressure will push fronts east, southeast with high pressure focusing on more southern parts of the continent while low pressure remains in control from Ireland to Russia. Waves of energy pushing into the warmer air over central areas will likely trigger heavy rains and thunderstorms but this pattern looks good for Italy and other soggy areas.

ECMWF surface by 24 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

48 hrs

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120 hrs.

ecmwfued---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

The ECMWF 500mb height mean anomaly for the upcoming 7 days says it all.

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-168-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

Day 3-10 continues with the below normal heights over the UK as well as over the eastern Med, while it’s well above normal over Iberia.

ecmwfued-hgt--europe-240-A-500hgtanom_7d_white

After a fairly settled spell through the last 3-5 weeks with ridging winning out in the west, we may well be entering a different phase in the pattern as we push towards the end of spring. Some of operational models have more troughiness and wetter conditions over the UK. Remember that as of June 1st, it’s officially summer, meteorologically speaking.

The models are far from clear cut though beyond the upcoming 7 days as the EPS control shows. Note the stronger positive over Iberia but it’s northern extent actually reaches the UK whereas the deterministic has more trough. It also has a positive over NE Europe compared to the deter.

Day 0-7

ecmwfa1ec-hgt--europe-168-A-500hgtanom_white

The 7-14 day below couldn’t be more different with a cutoff over the Bay of Biscay while ridging rides over top and into the UK.

ecmwfa1ec-hgt--europe-336-A-500hgtanom_white

See today’s video for more…

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