We have some severe weather out there this afternoon and this should go on through tonight before easing down tomorrow. The weekend to me still looks ripe for severe weather as a more significant trough dives into the Four Corners with all the ingredients coming together for what’s likely to be the first big outbreak of the year.
With both the current system and weekend systems crossing the country, we’re talking a LOT of rain over the next 5-7 days.
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Here comes the big dip in the jet down over the Southwest Saturday. This will pull all the heat and humidity north out ahead.
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96 hr, surface
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That’s an impressive upper system and trough.
Here’s a look at all the various components you look for for severe weather. Sunday looks to be the best day.
99 hr dew points.
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99 hr, low level jet.
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99 hr wind shear
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99 hr, lapse rate.
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96 hr CAPE.
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Storm Prediction Center already outlining the weekend potential.
BIGGEST THREAT area for severe with and tornadoes appears to be from Kansas to Tennessee. (will update exact risk area in coming days)
The north side of this system looks to bring significant snow to the northern Rockies, perhaps N Plains too.
144 hr snow off GFS
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Model tries to bring snow to places further south as the upper trough exits.
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ECMWF through 144 hrs.
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Looking chilly in the East once this big trough leaves into next week….
CPC 6-10 day temps.
8-14 day
Helped by +PNA/-NAO pattern which should hold eastern trough deep into May.
Great Lakes still has an outstanding nearly 40% ice cover still!
Nearly 60% ice still on Superior.
Perspective!
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Appreciate the feedback and really pleased your enjoying the posts and info. Looks like you’ll need to be watching your local weather station closely in coming days. will try to keep you posted as best as I can. Are you able to view the videos on your iphone ok, Kathleen?
Wow! I really appreciate the way you present these extremely complex weather/ climate events – making it possible for people like me to better understand the science behind it all. Really great forecast!
Can’t say I’m looking forward to being situated in Nashville for this upcoming severe weather however. Looks like a large area of the US Southeast is going to get slammed. Appears to be shaping up as a “perfect storm” this time.
Will be looking forward to your posts as we move on through this most unusual Spring during these most unusual times on Planet Earth… Your posts for Europe and for other areas of the globe are also fascinating & I look forward to every one.