Europe Outlook: Dissecting Potential End Of April Cold

Written by on April 23, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Models remain consistent is driving very late season cold south over Western Europe and here’s a large part of the reason why!

nao_fcst

ao_fcst

Both NAO and AO are going firmly negative, for the first time since before the winter.

SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!

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Notice the reverse of the height field from positive to negative over the UK and negative to positive over Greenland.

forecast_1_nh

forecast_2_nh

Note at the end of the 14 day period, ridging appears to return to the current Iberia-UK position with NAO flipping back around.

forecast_3_nh

Is this going to be the coldest end to April of the century with widespread snow? No! In fact this, if it happens, is not unusual. Snow even to low levels has happened even in recent years as late as May but I guess the noteworthy aspect of this will be the fact that most of us will be spring and summer minded and this may be more of a shock to the system given our recent warmth.

Chilly daytime maxes will be tempered by our strong late April sun but catch a shower or get exposed to a northerly breeze and it feels like March again. -5C air at 850mb temps to transfer down towards earth within hefty, instability showers. That’s when we get our hill snow and rain changing to sleet at lower levels.

Any sort of chill is a good week away so there’s high levels of uncertainty but check out the ECMWF surface chart at 144, note that the low directly over the UK is tugging on arctic air. Once and if this thing slides east, the cold air is allowed to cross UK air space.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 204 hours, the model has the low out over the North Sea but the model isn’t that impressive with the chill coming south.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The model has also backed off on the snow.

Here’s the 10 day.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The GFS is more impressive with the northerly push through the middle of next week.

Here’s a quick glance at the latest GFS operational through the 168-192 hour period next week.

168 hr surface.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

192 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

192 hrs at 850mb

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS 500mb height anomaly at 192.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

850mb temperature anomaly at 192.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

How about those surface temps as a result.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS snow forecast through 168 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Suspicious of the fact there’s NO snow anywhere outwith the UK.

Be sure to watch today’s video for look at the longer term.

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