US Outlook: Severe Weather Threat Increases, Warmth Can’t Gain Control

Written by on April 22, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Temps reached the warmest levels of the year so far today in Las Vegas with a high topping 93 degrees, all thanks to a building ridge over the Southwest and West. As we progress into the middle week period, a trough digs down out of Western Canada, pushing the ridge and warmth east into the Plains where the hottest weather of the year will impact Texas to Nebraska.

Here’s the current 500mb chart off the ECMWF.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Note the system pushing through Texas today, that’s bringing pockets of severe weather as of this writing.

However, here’s Wednesday. A perfect setup for severe weather on the western Plains.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

This should bring another chance of rain all the way to SoCal as well as bring a soaking to the Midwest and eventually the East as the trough swings through later in the week.

p120i

The SPC has a slight risk up from West Texas up to northern Nebraska.

day3otlk_0730

CAPE values soar Wednesday PM and evening.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Up till now, there have only been 92 tornadoes. That’s a record low level and of course it’s been well advertised here in recent posts including the summer 2014 forecast that this number and quiet spell is unlikely to continue.

torgraph_big_1

Now, It’s amazing to still see this on the ECMWF snow chart through the next 7 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Next 10 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Is this WRONG or is this possible? I will tell you this much, given what remains to the north, the type of pattern, it would not surprise me if we STILL HAVEN’T SEEN THE END TO SNOWFALL over the N Plains, perhaps Midwest and even the Northeast. Will look at this hopefully tomorrow more…

There’s a real battle between cold continuing to try and push south while warm, humid air naturally wants to push north, after all, we’re now getting that natural build up of heat over the sub-tropics but it’s having a real tough time as it heads into the United States and comes up against a wall of chilly if not cold air that’s coming off of an abnormally large Canada snow pack.

CFSv2 shows the battle between warm and cold and it certainly looks as though cold is beating the warmth.

wk1_wk2_20140420_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140420_NAsfcT

Be sure to read the summer forecast and today’s video if you haven’t already. Lots on there and will be back tomorrow with more. Have a great night.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top