Upper Midwest Snowstorm Exits, Warmth Next Week Raises Severe Threat!

Written by on April 17, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Snow cover across the Lower 48 has shrunk to 15% but despite a now lack of snow cover, it’s darn cold, historic cold for the time of year with records lows witnessed from central and eastern Canada all the way to the Gulf Coast in recent mornings.

Many saw their coldest readings for so late with Land O’Lakes, WI falling to -7 while Marquette, MI dropped to -5 yesterday. Both being the latest sub zero lows in history.

Here’s the current US snow cover. Note the swath of snow from yesterday into this morning’s swath from South Dakota to the UP of Michigan.

nsm_depth_2014041705_National

Close up of the N Plains.

nsm_depth_2014041705_Upper_Midwest

Record lows set on the 15th (Tue)

Source/Credit: coolwx.com

Source/Credit: coolwx.com

Here was some impressive record lows over Ontario Tuesday morning.

Source/Credit: The Weather Network

Source/Credit: The Weather Network

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Warmer times are ahead as the N Plains system lifts out and the trough deepens down over the Four Corners.

CPC 6-10 days shows the warming from the Rockies east while it cools Out West.

610temp_new

As the trough digs, so the ridge is pumped northward further east. Notice this in the below 500mb charts, now through next Thursday. Also notice that this setup supports a potentially significant severe weather threat next week as the heat looks to really build over the Plains while we get a pretty decent surface and upper low over the Southwest.

Also notice a pretty decent low develops along the South Atlantic coast. Could be a rather cool, messy few days from Titusville, FL up to Wilmington, NC with coastal gales along with a steady, soaking rain.

12 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

48 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

72 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

96 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

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144 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

168 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Looks to get rather hot on the Plains early next week as the ridge really pumps.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the big turnaround in the GFS ensemble 7-mean 500mb height anomalies.

Now

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

0-7

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the western trough/eastern ridge next week in the means. That’s much more conducive for severe weather. Will need to watch this setup closely.

7-14

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

I think the eastern ridge is stronger.

Great Lakes remains 37.1% ice. That’s STILL over 1000% above normal.

What’s very interesting is that it looks as though the Great Lakes ice could well be in record territory in terms of ice extent, this late. Looks like this year has beaten the infamous winters of 1994 and 1979. This comparison chart was thrown up on twitter by winter weather expert Tom Niziol of TWC.

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