As a fairly strong upper level ridge of high pressure pushes mild to warm sunshine from Spain to Northern Britain today, we’re seeing cold air decent south over eastern Europe in response.
Check out the snow projections off the ECMWF and GFS through the next 72 hours over south-central Europe.
ECMWF
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GFS
You can see very distinctly in the 500mb (upper level) chart the reason for the current setup. Note the big northward buckle in the west where Azores and Iberian air is pushing all the way up into Scandinavia but as a result the chill that typically still exits up here, is getting forced south into areas that should be warming nicely, after all, Croatia, Bosnia and even Italy do have a Med climate that’s warming nicely by now.
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Low pressure forms at the base of this unusually deep trough which pushes out over the Adriatic Sea. The ridge shifts slightly east of it’s current position (directly over the UK) and by shifting the core out over the North Sea, this forces the low to spin up and intensify. As this happens, colder air drops into the base of the trough and with a deepening system comes dynamic cooling which may help bring enhanced snow to the mountains.
It may also keep resorts that typically start seeing holiday markers, rather chilly.
Here’s the 500mb chart at 36 hrs.
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Check out how cold the air is at 5,000ft!
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Surface chart shows precip that will bring low level rain, high level snow and as you can see from the above snow maps. We could see a significant accumulation.
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Wednesday into Thursday sees a trough briefly drive cloudier and for some, wetter conditions south over the UK but this is short lived with another high immediately pushing in from the Atlantic.
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Here comes ridge No 2! This keeps this settled into the weekend, however the second half of the weekend could turn unsettled in Southern Britain.
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The ECMWF has a low pushing up into southern England from France.
500mb
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Surface.
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Right now, the overall thinking is that any low which does try to push into the southern UK from the near continent, either backs away to the W and SW or is absorbed by stronger than normal heights across the board.
You can see the ECMWF has that low dissipating as it gets pushed SW but note the front approaching from the west….
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We do appear to see a break down in the high more substantially mid to late next week and this coincides with the overall thinking mentioned in recent posts. Remember the GFS ensemble and ECMWF 7-means show ridging sliding east week 2.
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Week 1 GFS ensemble 500mb 7-day mean height anomalies.
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Week 2 shows the ridge core further east.
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Hope to have a video later!
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