For those taking this week off to spend with friends and family, well you may not want to rush off to sunnier, warmer climbs as the weather right here at home isn’t looking too bad.
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High pressure has been largely dominated across the bulk of the UK into the near continent throughout the past few weeks. This pattern is allowing some drying out of the soils following a super soaking winter.
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While there’s an awfully long way to go before we can consider our soils dried out and back to normal, this pattern sure helps.
The next 7 days sees high pressure parked over the UK in the means. Actually two highs, the first which is dominating the first half of the week, has Spanish origins and so we’re talking slightly warmer than normal temps and fairly sunny conditions. After a brief blip Wednesday-Thursday with a front sagging south, the second high builds in late week and this has more cold Atlantic origins. That means dry, yes but cloudier skies. All in all, it’s a decent outlook now through Saturday. As per usual, fronts will increase cloud with a chance of rain over the Rep of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland mid week onwards.
Here’s the GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies through the forthcoming 7 days.
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Week 2 shows the high sliding east BUT notice heights remains slightly above normal. This should hold back a return of full blown Atlantic weather.
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The 9-16 day shows positive heights across the board. Suggests drier conditions pretty much through the rest of April.
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ECMWF surface charts through Friday. Notice the high slides east midweek, allowing a front to slide south but the secondary high slides in from the Atlantic through the second half of the week. Also note the cold surge which brings heavy mountain snows to Croatia and Bosnia!
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ECMWF shows impressive snows over the Balkans through this week.
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CFSv2 continues the warm/drier than normal theme over Western and northern Europe in May but note the cooler than normal from Iberia east across the Med!
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