Europe Outlook: 10-Day Model Comparison Between ECMWF & GFS

Written by on April 11, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

In yesterday’s post I looked at the fairly dry outlook in the next 10 days across the West of Europe. Today I want to look at the differing solution between ECMWF and GFS for the upcoming 7-10 days.

The overall idea with both models are alike but as usual, there are some differences. The main difference I’m seeing is the GFS drops a deeper trough down over the UK quicker than the ECM. The ECMWF tends to hold the ridge for longer but either way, high pressure wins out over the trough, just… in the next week. Beyond that, there appears to be a breaking down of heights with troughiness returning to an extent. Be sure to watch the video for today which looks at the 500mb height anomalies in ECMWF deterministic, Control and GFS.

In today’s write-up below I have thrown up the surface analysis for both ECMWF and GFS with their differences over the next 10 days. Spot the difference…

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24 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice the front running 7 days is rather dry across the Southern UK and North/central France but in the 10 day, rain increases as the model sees the dip in the trough and increase in rainfall as a result.

7 day precip

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

10 day

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

GFS is similar with the Northern UK battle of the air masses but notice how it takes the chill down with return of more unsettled quicker than the ECMWF. Beyond 168 it gets a little carried away with precip.

24 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

 

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

96

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

120

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

144

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF has nothing in the way of snow except for the central Highlands of Scotland as well as Scandinavia, the Alps and Balkans where as the GFS does have snow for the UK.

ECMWF 7-day

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS 7-day

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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