Europe: April Continues Where March Left Off

Written by on April 8, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

March was warmer and slightly drier than normal for the UK and this trend continues as we enter April’s second week.

Here’s the temperature chart for the month of March from the Met Office. Note that East Anglia saw it’s warmest March since 1997.

Source/Credit: Met Office

Source/Credit: Met Office

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As stated in recent days and in today’s video. The bias over the next 1-2 weeks is for stronger than normal heights across the UK with a ridge/warm core holding firm over Spain and France. The weather is largely sunny and warm throughout Iberia if your heading down there for an early Easter break.

The NAO is trending positive and will be firmly positive by next week. This is a strong Atlantic trough/Europe ridge signal but that does not guarantee a solid UK ridge. Scotland and Northern Ireland can and may well be left stuck beneath the cloud, light rain and stiffer breezes while it’s the Midlands down into Southeast England which receives the more continental style warmth and sunshine.

Both GFS and ECMWF have flattened heights on the northern side of the high this weekend and the first few days of next week. This suggests a slightly fresher westerly flow for all, but more so the further north you go.

ECMWF 500mb 00z Sat

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the upper ridge core is SW of Ireland at 00z Sun. Air flow is more of a cool westerly, not warm southerly.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS not much better for 06z Sat.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Both models show stronger heights into next week.

168 hour ECMWF 500mb

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS mirrors ECMWF at 168 by lifting heights over the UK.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

We’re likely to see a back and forth in ridge strength and orientation. Expect largely mild and sunny in the South, somewhat cooler, cloudier and at times damp in the North through the weekend.

If you live on the near continent. Say from France to Denmark, expect largely fine, fine and mild conditions.

nao_sprd2

For those bored with this rather benign pattern. Have faith. This may lead to something worth waiting for, later down the road!!

More tomorrow. Be sure to watch today video!

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