Ridge To Dominate Iceland, UK, Italy While Low Plagues Iberia, Cold Scand…

Written by on March 27, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

If you read and watched last Sunday’s Mother’s Day outlook for the UK, you’ll remember the uncertainty and conflicting solutions between ECMWF and GFS. Both models are now in the same camp and it’s looking good for the majority of both the UK and Ireland as well as much of central and western Europe.

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It’s looking rather mild all thanks to building high pressure over the continent with retrogression of the trough out into the Atlantic, a rather unusual reverse setup. As stated, it’s a very blocky pattern these days.

In saying that most will be mild is true to an extent though there are exceptions. If you live or are visiting the East Coast this weekend, you may find it anything but mild. That will be because the mild se winds that will heat things up over interior and particularly western parts, will push fog banks onto North Sea facing coasts. The prevailing SSE flow will keep fog up and down much of the coast much of the day preventing temps from getting much above 8 or 9C.

Here’s the latest ECMWF for the upcoming weekend. Note that as fronts push westwards from the UK out over the Atlantic, systems push down and into Iberia bringing unseasonably cool and rather dreary weather here. The unsettled theme also continues across many parts of the Med.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 500mb chart for Sunday and you can clearly see the upper high as well as surface high which should promote decent sun away from onshore coasts. Reason for the fog is mild winds blowing over cold water. Enough capping should make for a great outdoors weekend across much of western Europe.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

We see little change into next week as we sit at the cross roads between high pressure over the continent and low pressure over the Atlantic. The blocking high should stop frontal traffic from spreading us, keeping us largely dry but if your heading to Iberia for a pre-Easter vacation, you may well be disappointed.

Here’s the 500mb for Tuesday, shows this well. We sit under high pressure.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The systems continue to get blocked from entering the UK into mid next week, so they take the path of least resistance, underneath! The 144 hr surface shows more low pressure bring more precipitation to Spain and Portugal. Note the chill diving into eastern Europe.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

It’s looking like the ridge stands firm even out to late next week but Iberia may want to closely monitor the charts towards next Thursday. Hopefully this will change but the ECMWF is taking a rather deep low into Iberia with strong wind and rain, even high elevation snow.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the surface chart…

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

We get some rain (mainly SW UK/Ireland) but there’s a LOT on the way to Iberia…

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 500mb height anomalies over the upcoming 7 days. Notice the high is Iceland to Italy oriented, protecting us from the cold dropping south from Scandinavia and from Atlantic weather that’s getting rerouted into Iberia.

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Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

144

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

168

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

That’s a heck of a trough aiming at Portugal!

NAO still looks to go negative…

nao_fcst

Will try to get a video up around 7.30 tonight!

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