EUROPE: A Look At Pattern And Importance Of Rainfall Distribution/Soil Moisture Leading To Summer

In a follow up to last night’s post regarding the cooler, drier outlook, I want to look a little more closely at soil moisture content and it’s importance in atmospheric feedback as we toward warmer times.

Here’s the ECMWF’s interpretation of Europe’s soil moisture content.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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The focus of wettest ground extends from the UK to Italy. This is where the greatest amount of precipitation has fallen over the past 3-4 months and if it stayed wet, low pressure would likely hold firm over the West of Europe through the rest of spring and summer. As shown in the previous post, abnormally warm water surrounded the UK and spanned the entire North Atlantic by the end of March 2012. This warmth added copious amounts of moisture and energy to the atmosphere and the potential trigger to turning on the hose was likely the formation of a weak El Nino, yes a trigger thousands of miles away.

The saturated ground across the UK by the end of April, coupled with warm waters surrounding, made for a record wet summer. In stark contrast, last spring was abnormally cold and in turn dry.

The cold spring led to abnormally cold waters surrounding the UK. Cold water/dry ground caused stronger than normal pressure over the UK.

Up until about a week ago, I had this spring and summer pegged as a mixed bag. An in between of summers 2012 and 2013. Not as warm as last year and nowhere near as wet as 2012. That’s despite a potential Nino coming on. What’s the difference? Water temperatures are nearer last year through the striking difference is warm NE Pacific this year compared to cold last year and the same goes for the North Sea.

UK rainfall is fairly subpar next 10 days. Will there be rain, yes BUT it’s not enough to add to the water already in the ground. There will be enough dry days in which the UK will manage to shed more water and dry more. Can’t help more notice the drier conditions over interior west and central parts of the continent.

Next 7 days

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Next 10 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

There’s a good chance that given the upcoming 15+ days is below average (spells in between that will be above), we should see the North Sea turn cooler than normal.

Here’s the ECMWF 7 day mean 500mb height anomaly

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

If even if it’s not all that chilly and we even see warmth, the important aspect is rainfall.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart through the next 7 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the dominance of high over low pressure!

Latest NAO and AO indexes from the GFS ensembles.

nao_sprd2

ao_sprd2

Be sure to watch today’s video!

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