Europe Pattern Becoming Blocked, Chilly With NAO/AO Going Negative

There are clear signs of a cooler and drier pattern evolving for the UK, Ireland and much of Europe starting this week and may continue well into April. This type of pattern may have fairly significant influence later into spring and indeed the summer ahead. Positive influence if you like something similar to last year, hint hint…

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The NAO appears set to go negative along with the AO which means we’re likely to stay on the below average side of things in both precipitation as well as temperature over the next few weeks. The next 8 weeks will be important and may decide what kind of summer we may be looking at.

Right now it’s either an average one with rain and warm/cool spells distributed evenly throughout the June through August period or we may well trend warmer and drier, especially mid July onwards.

NAO

nao_sprd2

AO

ao_sprd2

Even this week. We’re not particularly wet but we will be cool with an easterly flow developing as high pressure builds north of low pressure over western Europe. The UK and immediate western countries including Northern France, Low Countries up to Denmark will sit in the battle between high and low but guidance points to a deepening trough extending from Scandinavia down over central and western Europe next week as high pressure builds over Iceland and Greenland.

Latest ECMWF through the next 10 days.

48 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_48

96

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_96

144

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

192

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

240

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

Here’s the GFS 500mb mean height anomalies through the next 7 days.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

CFSv2 has the Greenland block and cool/dry signal deep into April for Western Europe.

Week 1-2

wk1_wk2_20140323_z500

3-4

wk3_wk4_20140323_z500

If there had been warm waters surrounding the UK with the prospects on El Nino coming on, I would be looking towards a fairly wet summer BUT, the cold water spanning the Atlantic and potential chilly next few weeks which could well cool the North Sea, could in fact aid in bringing a warmer, drier summer to the UK, especially the second half with this Nino. An opposite effect to 2012.

Check out the SST difference in the Atlantic and around the UK now compared to this time back in 2012.

Current

anomnight_3_24_2014

end of March 2012

anomnight_3_29_2012

The Jamstec originally had a cool Scotland/warm England this summer but it’s all warm now.

temp2_glob_JJA2014_1mar2014

A lot will depend upon whether we get see more drier of our still exceptionally wet ground.

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