US OUTLOOK: Strat Warming Supports Two Waves Of Arctic Air Next 2 Weeks, Cold Spring!

Written by on March 20, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

We are seeing a significant strat warming event taking place from Siberia across the pole into northern Canada and this supports the coming arctic waves into the Lower 48 next 2 weeks and beyond. Check out the initial 10mb temps. Look at the orientation of the warming. Directly underneath is where the coldest air is.

gfs_t10_nh_f00

As heights rebuild up into Alaska, so we see a cross polar flow with Siberian enhancement to next week’s cold blast. Next week’s cold will be an air mass more suited to January than late March, hench the help from both Siberia and stratosphere because it’s very tough for the atmosphere to support the cold that’s coming, this late on.

Check out the 5 day mean 850mb temp departure (colder compared to normal)

0-5 day

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Much colder day 5-10.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As the first of two waves come down, we continue to watch the system that develops at the base of the trough early and mid next week.

The surface chart continues to show the major coastal low, though model has it further offshore compared to yesterday.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

By next Wednesday the ECMWF has the system due east of Long Is. Weaker and would be a bigger event for the coastal plain and likely Big Cities rather than interior and New England.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Model’s backed off big time on snow totals..

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Long way off and models WILL go back and forth with this one.

Check out these 850 temps as the low spins off Long Is. January-like!

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

One aspect we must consider is the exceptionally warm water off the Eastern Seaboard. This may help fuel any coastal low next week.

anomnight_3_17_2014

CFSv2 keeps the cold look into April (below charts). Given waters are warmer than normal all the way to the coast on both sides of Mexico (see SST anomalies above), we must consider ‘warmer than normal’ temps over Mexico itself. This heat which naturally builds at this time of year and particularly into April will eventually lift north. Could increase the thermal gradient across the US and increase severe threats.

wk1_wk2_20140318_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140318_NAsfcT

We’ll see a brief warm-up next weekend but models support the descent of another major arctic high as March ends and April begins. You can see the CFSv2 above is seeing this.

Finally, check out the still incredible Great Lakes ice coverage. 82.1% would be impressive a month ago. Remember we’re into the second half of March. What’s more amazing is given the cold coming next week, this percentage of ice cover is yet again increase!

glsea_cur

Will show you exactly what the models are showing in terms of temperatures in your area for next week in tomorrow’s post!

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