Europe Outlook: Classic Ups And Downs Of March, -35.8C In Sweden

Written by on March 18, 2014 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As expected, temperatures are brutal across much of Scandinavia with two mornings in a row dipping below -30C in northern Sweden. In contrast, a frontal boundary sits nearly stationary across northern Scotland and along the boundary we’re seeing mild westerlies with plenty of showers over Scotland. Drier the further south you go.

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A fairly deep low will take a run at Iceland over the next 24 hours. This will build pressure across the UK ahead of it’s front and so warmer air will revisit before wind and rain hits and is then followed by a much cooler WNW flow.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart at 24 hours and note the front sitting over the northern UK separating low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. Waves running along the boundary is bringing fr4equent blustery, thundery showers. Also note the low thicknesses over Scandinavia.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Just how cold is the air over northern Norway, Sweden and Finland, try -20 to -25C at 5,000ft.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

By Thursday, note the 968 low spinning on the south coast of Iceland with an active front steaming UK-bound. You can see the isobars running SW to NE ahead of the front which will allow Azores air to push back into England and Wales where highs may push 20C again. Places such as Aberdeen may see 16 or 17C.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 5,000ft temps for the same period.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

We should continue to see a fairly large temperature spread between southern Spain and northern Scandinavia’s highs and lows. For example the low yesterday fell to -30.4C in northern Sweden while highs reached 29C in southern Spain. Today it hit -35.8C in Sweden and we will likely see at least mid-20s near Seville.

By Friday (below), note the front is through the UK while that warmth kicks out the arctic air over Scandinavia. In this cold gets wrapped around two lows, 1 near Norway and another (parent low) SE of Iceland and gets drawn into the UK. In MUCH modified fashion of course.

 

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

5,000ft temps show that cold getting wrapped around this lows and pushed into the UK.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Into the weekend and it’s looking like a cool, blustery and unsettled affair throughout much of Western Europe with a substantial trough in place. Nice warm surge into eastern parts.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

It will feel chilly in the NW wind given these 5k temps.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Into next week and a chilly high looks to build into Western Europe. This should bring pleasant sunshine and average temps by day but cold, frosty nights.

144 hr surface

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

5k temps

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The model appears to linger the chillier, higher pressure pattern next week but moral is, we’re in a TYPICAL up and down March pattern. No real extremes to talk about unfortunately.

Here’s next Wed.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Now, while your probably bored with this pattern. Here is something that may hopefully grab your interest…

El Nino appears to be coming….

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Now this could have impacts during the SECOND half of summer for us, possibly wetter and or warmer. I have a good deal more work to do to try figure what impacts this may have. Depends a lot on how strong is gets, where the warm pool settles and how SST’s are around our part of the world.

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