United States Spring & Preliminary Summer 2014 Forecast (Includes Severe/Hurricane Thoughts)

Written by on March 17, 2014 in Spring 2014, United States of America with 0 Comments

There’s no question that this winter has been a tough one from the Plains to Atlantic Seaboard with many Midwest and interior East cities recording a top 10 cold winter.

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Given the pattern over the next 2 to 3 weeks, there doesn’t appear to be any sign of the rubber band snapping and a reversal anytime soon. In fact, that the warm northeast Pacific water stays warm and with the drought unlikely to improve in the coming weeks and months, the ridge will likely continue pumping heat north into Alaska and over the western half of the continent while a mean trough lingers over the eastern United States through the rest of this spring and into summer.

Current drought monitor. Dry ground leads to higher than normal pressure. Feedback increases as the atmosphere heats up.


There are more cold shots coming but before that, check out the projected snow over the Mid-Atlantic with the system now gathering over the Mississippi Valley.


Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro


Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This March open was one of the coldest if not thee coldest in US history.


Looks like there’s plenty more cold to come as seen in the CFSv2 which has been persistent with it’s cold idea.

Week 1-2


Week 3-4


May that be hints of something a little warmer week 4?

Believable given that the warm pool remains strong over the northeast Pacific and drought just continues to worsen over the West.


The snowpack across central and eastern Canada will likely melt far later than normal this spring and thus cold air will continue to feed into the US on that northwest flow thanks to the western ridge.

That also means Hudson Bay ice melt will be very slow along with the Great Lakes. Snow cover, cold air influence each other and will help ice linger on bays and lakes. That supports a cool, grey spring and potentially summer for areas particularly downwind of these icy waters. In contrast to the cool outlook for areas east of the Mississippi, we’re looking at a warmer, drier than normal spring and summer from Southern California to Alaska unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in the waters of the NE Pacific.

Here’s a look at the current snow and ice cover over the continent. Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes remain locked in winter and the 2-3 week outlook suggests this remains the case through much of April.


Here’s a closer look at the Great Lakes.


Still an impressive 74.8% ice coverage, down from a mid-March record of 92.4%.

Even when these waters loose their ice, winds blowing out of the northwest over Ontario, Quebec and the Midwest, Northeast will be chilly.

Severe Weather Season

It’s looking warmer than normal this spring down across Mexico thanks, in part to the warmer than normal waters off both coasts. As we begin to see the sub-tropical high build north, so will this heat and with continued cold likely to feed south out of Canada, the recipe is there for an active (above normal) severe weather season this year. Look at the warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico. These warmer waters are likely to push higher dew point air north and thus fuel will be available for some pretty substantial severe weather outbreaks, especially later in April and May. May could be a nasty month with big air mass collisions.

Could Be A Very Wet Spring And Summer In The South And East

These warm waters not only reside in the Gulf but right up the East Coast and with trough diving out of the Great Lakes more frequently this year, all this tropical warmth and moisture is sure to get lifted north bringing significant rainfall this summer. This will add to the cooler summer following a cold spring.

Here’s the projected precip forecast this spring and summer off the CFSv2




Here’s the June through August period.





The Jamstec has a widespread cool summer for the US.


While I believe it’s going to be a cooler, wetter than normal summer east of the Plains, warmer, drier to the west, let’s remember that there will be spells of summer heat and dryness but these episodes will be less frequent than normal and especially compared to recent summers.

Hurricane Season

While the overall tropical cyclone numbers are expected to be LESS this upcoming season, one cannot ignore the abnormally WARM WATER lurking just off the US East Coast. That warm water will remain and the Gulf should continue heating as well. We must watch systems that develop nearer to the US which could spin up quick and become nasty quick. Andrew back in 1992 formed in a quiet year, a weak El Nino year, just like we’re expecting this year.



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