EUROPE IN-DEPTH: Cold/Zonal Jet To Strongly Influence W Europe Pattern Next Week

Written by on March 14, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United States of America with 0 Comments

Hope you’ve enjoyed this week’s pleasant weather, albeit disrupted at times by cloud, mist and fog but at least we’ve had a sustained period without rain.

As we continue to press through March, I continue to study the pattern we’re in, have been in and the influence our surrounding water temperatures may be having and more importantly, what they will have as we go forward.

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The overall consensus is for a colder and much more unsettled pattern this weekend into next week. Colder air will gain more ground as we loose the ridging and go to a much more familiar west-east flow. Helped by the abnormally cold North Atlantic, the jet and systems which form along it, look to drive colder and colder air across Ireland and the UK and that will be something worth paying close attention to.

Though tougher to get, snow at this time of year is not uncommon and often during fairly mild, wet winter’s, we can get hit by a late season/soring cold spell which delivers snow. As for a large swath of Europe, it’s turning much colder with lowering heights which will draw down late season arctic air.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface/precipitation charts through this weekend and all of next week. Notice the turn to much more unsettled with the Atlantic opening up once again. However, we should pay attention to the position of that west-east jet as it crosses the Atlantic. It’s shifting further and further south and as it does so, not only will colder air cross the ocean from North America but it will also be modified less thanks to the cold AMO waters we now have.

36 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

72 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

96 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

144 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

168 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The model takes the jet further and further south by the end of next week and so these lows pushing into the UK and W Europe bares close watching as our snow potential could increase. I say that with caution though as it’s a long way off.

This strong westerly flow is supported by the GFS ensemble NAO chart as well as the 500mb height anomalies.

ao_sprd2

A flat lining NAO usually means a zonal or west-east flow across the Atlantic.

GFS ensembles show the return of the trough and the battle we face here in the UK and the near continent (Low Countries, Denmark etc)

500mb height anomalies (7 day means)

0-7

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

7-14

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

9-16

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

What will help support that colder air mass despite the Atlantic flow is the large body of cold water covering the North Atlantic. The jet and storm will form right where those waters are coldest relative to average.

anomnight_3_13_2014

This pattern also means precipitation increases significantly, especially during the second half of next week if these models are correct.

Notice how moisture is rather unimpressive now through next Wednesday but by the end of this time next week, there’s a good 3 inches expected over the West Highlands of Scotland.

Through next Wednesday

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Next 7 days

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the 10 day.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Since I mentioned colder, could we get snow with this increase in precip? Well check out the 7 and 10 day ECMWF. Though much tougher to get accumulating snow at this time of year, it’s not all that rare.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS sees UK snow next week too!

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

SPRING FORECAST ALONG WITH SUMMER IDEAS WILL BE RELEASED THIS SUNDAY!

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