Very Mild From California To New York Monday But Winter Is Ready To Pounce, AGAIN!!

Written by on March 11, 2014 in Spring 2014, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Mild Pacific air has flooded the nation with the warmest air since last October and November. In fact temps ran a solid 10 to as much as 30 above normal today from California to New York but old man winter is ready to show that he’s not done yet. Not by a long shot.

The warmest which boosted central plains temps into the mid 70s, even 80 was in very stark contrast to the low single digit to below zero highs witnessed just 8 days ago. Remember many towns experienced their coldest March days and nights on record. Today reached 70 in Kansas City while 8 days ago it only managed 5 which smashed the all-time coldest high in KC history.

Here was today’s highs.

Source/Credit: weather.com

Source/Credit: weather.com

This surge of spring warmth is ahead of the next developing WINTER STORM, a storm that’s expected to drop 3-6 inches on parts of the northern Ohio Valley and may drop upwards of 2 feet on northern New England.

Tomorrow’s highs will be warmer for such places as the I-95, check out the 60 reaching all the way to New York City. Remember my forecast, it’s going for heavy rain followed by a backside 1-3 inch snow.

Source/Credit: weather.com

Source/Credit: weather.com

Here’s the surface chart during Wednesday as the storm starts to wind up over the Ohio Valley, gone is the warmth, just look at those low thicknesses sweeping in on the backside of this intensifying low.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!

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Check out the vast drop in temperature as the system rolls through. Note, Chicago.

Source/Credit: weather.com

Source/Credit: weather.com

Here’s Thursday’s surface chart as the system rolls into the Northeast. This looks to be a major snow and the biggest of the season for New England. 1-2ft expected.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This thing really bombs out off the Cape with pressure dropping below 980mb with a powerful northeast wind creating blizzard conditions across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Just look at the type of temperatures New York City has in store on the back of tomorrow’s 60.

Source/Credit: weather.com

Source/Credit: weather.com

The storm is going to be a close call for Chicago but a hitter for Indy where 2-4 is possible. The GFS takes a weaker and further north tracking system across the Northeast which means little to no snow from Philly to Hartford whereas the ECMWF takes a stronger system practically over Philly which means heavy rains turn over to snow, snow that could tally 1-2 in Philly, 2 or 3 in the Big Apple.

Latest GFS snowfall

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Rare Mid-March Cold Follows In Wake Of Storm

GFS still drops temps to at least single digits as far south as central Ohio, near zero in Detroit with ECMWF going more extreme than before with -5 to -10, overdone! Even getting below 10 in mid March in Ohio is darn impressive. In the Northeast, GFS drops lows Friday AM below 20 in New York City, ECMWF a tough colder at nearer 15 with -5 along the central NY-PA border.

Thu AM

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Fri AM

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

I’ve been making mention for a days now about the potential for another, more southern track system next week which could target the Big I-95 cities rather than interior. The reason is the type of active pattern, the amount of cold still available over Canada that can still get tapped and the fact the PNA remains positive while the NAO may be going negative.

Check out the indexes.

nao_fcst

pna_fcst

Forget the AO as we don’t need a negative given the amount of cold over Canada and of course we did see some brutal cold diving into the Lower 48 back in December with a positive AO.

ao_fcst

The negative NAO appears a good bet as modelling is now backing a high over the UK west out into the Atlantic. This could help with that more southern track then a run up the East Coast.

Major East Coast Snowstorm Still Looming?

The ECMWF is back on the bigger snow event towards the end of the 10 day period.

Here’s 204 hrs.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

With this water temp profile still, amount of ice on lakes etc, the CFSv2 looks to be on the right track for April and May over the US!

anomnight_3_10_2014

usT2mMonInd1

usT2mMonInd2

usT2mMonInd3
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