Impressive Height Field Reversal Coming To Europe… Mild To Cold In 5 Days!

Written by on March 11, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

There’s little ‘weather’ to speak of across most of Europe thanks to a strong positive height field. Temps managed to reach 16C in the Scottish Highlands this afternoon thanks to abundant sun, dry air and light winds.

The ridge appears to peak in strength tomorrow over the North Sea before a gradual decline in heights through the later half of the week. The ridge gets weakened and suppressed to the SW enough that a front pushes back into Scotland by later Thursday into Friday. This heralds a significant change for Europe as an equally as impressive trough drops south over Scandinavia.

ECMWF 500mb at 24 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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Surface 24 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

By 72 hrs, heights are slashed and a front sags south into N Scotland introducing far cooler air. 6 rather than 16 for the high.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

By 96 hrs or Saturday, the high is to the west while a discharge of arctic air dives south over Scandinavia along with one of the deepest troughs of the season. The UK picks up a chilly northerly flow with wintry showers possible.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Into next week and we continue to feel the effects of the nagging NW wind with showers. Much colder over the continent where snow is likely to impact many across Germany and Poland.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As for snow, as you would expect, there’s nothing pretty much anywhere over Europe through the next 72 hours but as the trough descends upon the heart of Europe with core of cold and low heights over Europe, snow becomes a big factor into the weekend and particularly next week.

72 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

168 hrs

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Notice that by the end of the upcoming 7 days, the GFS has snow back over the UK again. Modelling is and will continue to go back and forth with the ridge/trough and depending on position, it depends on who really gets cold along with an increased chance of seeing snow.

Big flip in the pressure field.

The GFS ensembles show the strong positive sitting directly over the North Sea tomorrow.

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Huge reversal in heights from strong positive to negative by Monday!

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Wed 19th

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Source/Credit: AccuWeather Pro

That’s a mighty impressive trough dropping down over Scandinavia when you see an ensemble with 496dc heights.. How cold and how long for the UK/Ireland remains unknown. All depends on positive of N Atlantic ridge. Models will go back and forth.

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