The general theme in the next 7 days is for high pressure to become established over Western Europe. Something not seen since really the end of last summer.

High pressure already dominates much of Europe with SE England now feeling the effects. The frontal boundary separating low pressure over the Atlantic and high pressure Germany is weakening as it sinks southeast over Britain but it’s also pulling in very cold air that’s out over the ocean, across Northern Ireland and Scotland, where it’s feeling in the strong to gale-force west wind. Heavy showers piling in, are transferring cold air aloft, down to the surface, forcing precip to fall as hail and even sleet and wet snow.

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Another low sweeping towards Iceland will push another front towards the UK Sunday and winds ahead of the front will transport mild Iberian air north, pushing highs to the warmest values of 2014. Again, cold air on the backside of fronts will make for a wintry feel over Northern Ireland and Scotland. It will be wet and windy as the front arrives. The strong height field over France means the front weakens, with little or no moisture by the time it reaches London.

Here’s the surface and 850 temp charts for this afternoon. Note the split in air mass over Britain.

Close up view shows the low thicknesses over N Ireland and Scotland while south of the boundary, Southern Britain enjoys MUCH milder air.

Here’s that cold air at 5,000ft that illustrates the cold flow we’re in here in the North. Though surface temps aren’t bad at 5-7C, when that breeze blows, you can knock 2-4C off that air temp. The showers which are rattling in is also transferring the cold aloft down to the surface and thus supporting hail, sleet, even wet snow doiwn to near sea level. Hills above 300 metres should turn white then once the sun returns, any snow sleet or snow cover disappears.

We’re keeping an eye on that next deep low out over the Atlantic. As the front approaches, SW winds crank, drawing warmer air that’s over Iberia north. With mild winds and sunshine, expect 16 or 17C in Madrid, Paris, London, Brussels and maybe Amsterdam.

Mild flow seen in the 850 temps. Follow the lines of equal pressure and see where the air is coming from. (Iberia)

Like we’ve seen in the past 12 to 18 hours, the next boundary slides across Ireland, N Ireland and Scotland bringing more wet, windy weather and a decent cool down on the backside of the front. The front also weakens till it’s practically none existent by the time it reaches London late Sunday into Monday as it’s running into too strong of a height field dominating Europe.

Here’s the cool down again for Northern Ireland and Scotland on the backside of the next front. It gets mild ahead of it though with highs of 9-12C over N Ireland, Scotland Saturday.

The core of this vast high is centred over Poland. Notice points east of the centre are under a cold northerly flow. It’s quite chilly in Moscow, Kiev all the way down to the Southeast. Greece and Turkey are chilly.

All models are in solid agreement about the building of high pressure not only over the western flank of the continent but over Ireland and ALL of the UK next week. It looks like high pressure will really settle things down all over the UK and Ireland from Tuesday right through till next weekend with a ridge core settling over the North Sea.

Look for cool, potentially frosty nights under clear skies and light winds but with at least some sunshine through the day, temperatures should warm nicely.

850 temps reflect the milder air mass.

Model shows warm air dominant throughout Western Europe next Thursday.

Has The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Flipped?

Check out the vast cooling the North Atlantic has undertaken during the winter…

Dec 1

Current

One could argue that the AMO is in a slight cold phase. Was this caused by the warm NE Pacific which drove frigid air south over North America which then blow out over the Atlantic, cooling it. Or was it the strength of the trans atlantic jet which was caused by a tight thermal gradient. Did this cold water lead to more troughiness over the Atlantic which led to stronger heights over Europe. Too much cold water perhaps kept the NAO positive. These are some of the questions I am asking myself these days. What caused what and what came first, the chicken or the egg.

Certainly a fascinating situation and an interesting forecast challenge as we head for warmer times. This cold water that covers a larger portion of the Atlantic than warmer, means a different feedback this spring and summer potentially. The thing that keeps me swaying towards an unsettled summer is the fact that we should see the trough go to where waters are coolest and where the ground is wettest. Right now that over the Atlantic and extends into Ireland and the UK. Ground is drier over central and eastern Europe where the mean ridge has been focused much of the winter. I think the models have the right idea with a warm spring and summer solution.

The Jamstec has a split temperature profile for the UK with cool in the north. Warmer in the south. I think this could wind up being a pretty warm summer this year over central and eastern Europe with spells of warmth reaching the UK, mainly the south and east. I think Scotland and Ireland could be left disappointed many times this year. For example, there could be days where it’s cool and cloudy over Northern Ireland and Scotland while it’s 28C and sunny from Birmingham to London.

Had that N Atlantic water temperature profile existed with a much drier Britain and Ireland, then I would have said the mean ridge this summer may lean more towards the west and not east of Europe.

Here’s the CFSv2 temps March through May

June through August

Precipitation

March through May

June through August

Looks like we’ve got an El Nino forming in Pacific this summer into autumn. This will have implications late summer and towards next winter as will the colder North Atlantic… Stay tuned.

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