Model: 6 Fronts To Cross Ireland/UK Next 10 Days, Europe Flood Threat! -60C Greenland!

Written by on February 25, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been a long, stormy winter with a hyper active Atlantic storm train which doesn’t appear to be tiring any time soon. There are striking similarities appearing between this year and 1994 when the US was also cold while the UK was stormy. Like this year, it was a bumper ski season in the Scottish Highlands.

Unfortunately the latest run of the ECMWF suggests SIX systems/fronts swipe Ireland and the UK in the next 10 days starting tomorrow night. Those 6 fronts suggest an additional 4-5 inches of rain falls over western Ireland and Scotland.

While we remain hopeful of some sort of break in this pattern at some point (hopefully in March), the focus of the rain (& snow) in the next 7 days appears to be over southern France/northern Spain, the southern Apennines of Italy and coastal Croatia into Bosnia. The ECMWF has the Adriatic coast baring the brunt with 6-7 inches.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In the 10 day QPF, rains are still potentially flood producing over the same areas targeted in the front runner 7 days but bigger rains appear to take aim back over western Scotland/Ireland and NW England.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

As you would expect, snowfall with this amount of moisture driving up the Pyrenees and Alps, is likely to be measured in feet in the coming days.

ECMWF snow forecast through the next 7 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Snow depth next 7 days

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the ECMWF surface charts which shows the continued parade of systems into Ireland and the UK. Note the persistent unsettled weather over the Med too.

System 1

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

System 2

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Appears to be immediately followed by system 3

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

System 4

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

System 5

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Towards the end of the upcoming 10 days and system 6 (next Thu) looks like another monster sub-945mb low.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

-60C In Greenland

While mild over Europe, it’s brutally cold over Greenland thanks to the +NAO, Greenland trough/Europe ridge setup. In fact the -60C or -76F recorded at Summit Camp this morning appears to be the coldest of the entire winter thus far.

Courtesy of Jesse Ferrell (AccuWeather)

Courtesy of Jesse Ferrell (AccuWeather)

Here was the scene a short time ago. Crystal clear, frigid skies. The wind chill at this hour is hovering around -70C or -95F. Ouch!

webcam

Here’s the upper chart via the ECMWF for today. Note the cold trough over Greenland as well as over North America.

ECH0-0

Latest CFSv2 March/April temps and precip. Trend shows jet stream lifting north. Flood threat appears to shift north while worst hit areas this winter get some relief.

euT2mMonInd1

euPrecMonInd1

euT2mMonInd2

euPrecMonInd2

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top