US PATTERN NEXT 1-3 WEEKS: Arctic Hound Returns, Wonderful Week For California!

Written by on February 24, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

As high pressure rebuilds up into Alaska and Northwest Canada, the arctic hound has returned to the Lower 48 and boy what a 1-3 weeks we have with not just bitter late season cold but California gold! Big rains which dive all the way into the LA and San Diego areas that is late week into the weekend.

Arctic air is rotating back into the Lower 48 on the western and southern flank of the Hudson Bay vortex which is getting pushed south once again. We have a strong undercutting southern branch jet which will present arid California with a much needed drenching. The latest models support as much as 5 inches of rain around the Los Angeles basin alone with much of that falling between Thursday and Sunday. These disturbances cross the Rockies and with warm meeting cold on the plains, look out for anything between a coating to 3″ or a more significant 6 incher across the TN-OH valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!

Modelling has turned around on the big midweek snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast but there are multiple opportunities with this pattern for snow events which lay down that carpet of white once again.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 showing the hammer coming back down and heights really build up over Alaska again.

wk1_wk2_20140223_NAsfcT

The CFSv2 goes to the extreme for cold week 3 (March 10-16)

wk3_wk4_20140223_NAsfcT

TOP IMAGE: Courtesy of Minnesota Vikings

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Here’s a look at the upper ECMWF chart through this week and note the vortex cycling pieces of the motherlode south into the Midwest and East.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_0

48

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_48

96

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_96

144

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart… (see video for details)

12 hrs

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

48

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

72

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

120

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

132

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

The cold gets bad by late this week, check out these temperatures Friday morning off the ECMWF.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

While this week as a whole is cold from North Dakota to western Pennsylvania, the latter part of the week appears coldest. With this latest outbreak, I’m expecting at least -15 in Minneapolis, -7 Chicago, 0 Pittsburgh and possibly 10 in New York.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow chart. Nothing particularly impressive through the next 5-7 days but into next week and things may get interesting in terms of bigger snows over the East.

72

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

120

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

168

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Notice the big increase in snow by 192! Model’s sniffing out a big snowstorm!

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

But.. going by various models including the GFS, ECMWF and CFS, we have plenty more cold to follow after this week..

As for Minneapolis, this winter according to the Twin Cities NWS  is the 11th coldest and when including this week’s cold, it’s likely to enter the top 10 list which records go back to 1899.

Source: NWS

Source: NWS

This morning marked day 43 below zero and 46 at or below zero. Couple another 7 straight nights below zero and we could be talking number 4 or even 3 for most sub 0 nights in a winter season.

Source: NWS

Source: NWS

This pattern is terrific for drought stricken California. A real soaking is on the way. See video for details.

Here’s the latest QPF through the next 7 days. Note it has 4-5 inches of rain around the LA Basin.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Latest graphic from the Bay Area NWS.

Source: NWS

Source: NWS

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