EUROPE OUTLOOK NEXT 1-2 WEEKS

Written by on February 22, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 3 Comments

As highlighted over the last few days, we have a pretty wet upcoming 48 to 72 hour period as a corridor of heavy precipitation with sub-tropical origin funnels it’s way NE across Ireland and Scotland.

The below visible satellite image shows the mass of cloud creeping towards us. That’s likely to drop 1-2, maybe 3 inches of rain over Scotland’s western upslopes and could cause localised flooding.

getpicture

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Here’s the setup according to the ECMWF tonight through tomorrow with the rain band squeezed between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. This corridor of rain will be accompanied by gales through the Irish Sea as well as along the coasts.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Once that front eventually clears, another low pushes into Ireland and the UK by Tuesday.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

The unsettled theme continues through the upcoming week. Here comes the next wind and rain bearing front Wednesday.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Europe’s rain is focused on the western flank of the continent through the next 7 days. No surprise given the fact that high pressure remains dominant across most of the mainland.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Closer look at the UK. Heaviest rain in all of Europe is focused upon Scotland’s West Highlands.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s a look at the GFS ensembles which show continued low heights extending from the Atlantic into the UK while positive heights hold strong over the central and eastern continent. That means little change in the short and medium range.

Upcoming 5 days off the GFS ensembles.

7 day 500mb height and temperature anomaly

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Day 3-10

500mb height and temperature anomalies.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

The day 3-10 period suggests stronger heights to the west out over the Atlantic while a trough holds firm over the UK. That setup could mean a trend towards colder as we depart February and enter March.

The GFS ensembles show a continued positive NAO which supports an Atlantic trough/Europe ridge over the next 14 days.

nao_sprd2

The CFSv2 4 week upper height anomalies show the continuation of the Atlantic flow into Western Europe through the first half of March but is hinting at more Atlantic troughiness and ridging near the UK in the second week of March. That could suggest more settled conditions with potentially milder air.

wk1_wk2_20140221_z500

wk3_wk4_20140221_z500

NOTE: TOMORROW IS MY BIRTHDAY AND WILL BE TAKING THE DAY OFF TO SPEND WITH MY WIFE AND DAUGHTER. WILL HAVE A NEW POST AGAIN MONDAY AM. THANKS FOR UNDERSTANDING!

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

3 Reader Comments

Trackback URL Comments RSS Feed

  1. Mark Vogan says:

    Many thanks, Kathleen and Julie. We all had a lovely, relaxing day.

  2. Kathleen says:

    Best wishes for the happiest of birthday ‘s Mark!
    Here’s hoping you have some wonderful time off with your family. My husband and I have six wonderful children. The time goes by so fast when they are small and it’s impossible to spend enough time enjoying those precious busy years…

    From one of your Nashville TN fans!

  3. Julie Grey says:

    Happy birthday Mark have a great day with your 2 ladies!

Leave a Reply

Top