US PATTERN: CFSv2 Shows Cold March, This Winter Could Have Ugly Spring, Summer Implications

Written by on February 19, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Here’s the charts shown in today’s video.

Some incredible snowfall departures compared to normal over the Midwest and East. Here are the latest numbers via NWS.

Source: NWS

Source: NWS

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CFSv2 week 1-4 temp anomalies. Note the models turns VERY cold into mid-March. Sharp flip between this week and next over NW North America.

wk1_wk2_20140217_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140217_NAsfcT

CFSv2 for March

CFSv2_NaT2m_20140218_201403

A result of that warm water in the NE Pacific feeding back once again, promoting that Alaskan ridge ALL winter, helped by arid California, or is it the other way about?

anomnight_2_17_2014

Latest Great Lakes ice.

glsea_cur

There hasn’t been this much ice on the Great Lakes since the sustained cold winter of 2003-04.

This is expected to make for a cold, cloudy, potentially damp spring over the Midwest/Ohio Valley region and could well persist well into summer 2014 boasting an eastern trough/western ridge.

CFSv2 for April

usT2mMonInd2

Jamstec has a battle this spring with warmth lifting north but cold tries to fight on in the north. Could make for heightened severe weather threats. Big temp contrasts.

Spring temp anomalies.

temp2_glob_MAM2014_1feb2014

Here comes the winter hangover with lingering Hudson Bay, Great Lakes ice helping hold eastern ridge over the eastern US this summer. Could be another cool summer like 2004.

temp2_glob_JJA2014_1feb2014

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