Impact Of UK Floods Seen From Space, Results In Stunning Scottish Snowpack! MORE STORMS LIKELY!

Written by on February 17, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Make the most of this week’s return to ‘normal unsettled’ and by that I mean Atlantic lows creep in from the west with pressure barely below 1000mb rather than a tightly wound wind machine with pressure into the depths of 940 to 950mb range.

These weaker systems pile in less wind and moisture so hardest hit areas of the south catch a break but that won’t mean a rain or wind free week. It just won’t be damaging or will it worsen the flood situation.

Here’s the silver lining to this moisture rich UK pattern with perfect freezing line giving way to a perfect ski season across the Scottish Highlands.

This is one of the best pictures I’ve seen yet. This was the scene at Glenshee ski centre yesterday. Just look at that snowpack. Courtesy of Ian Wood

Courtesy of Ian Wood @ianwood2011

Courtesy of Ian Wood @ianwood2011

SEE LATEST EUROPE VIDEO FOR EXPLANATION TO STORMY UK PATTERN SO FAR AND WHY THERE’S LIKELY MORE TO COME.

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You’ll perhaps of heard about rivers continuing to rise despite the rainfall stopping. Of course all the rivers systems particularly across Southern Britain will be working overtime trying to transport water from inland back to sea. All that water running off hills and fields runs into the rivers and all that water heads towards the sea, so areas that remain DOWNSTREAM, could see their nearest river rise.

This hi res satellite image captured yesterday showed the power of the recent flooding well from space. Check out the muddy waters hugging the southern coasts of Britain. That’s the flood waters draining into the sea.

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My theory is that while we’ve seen a shift in the upper pattern over the Pacific and North America with warming over the Eastern US, this has lowered the thermal contrast and thus the jet stream has slackened over the Atlantic which means lows aren’t as deep, but, the milder pattern over the US is short lived and we see the cold return next week and particularly so as we head into March. The atmosphere is likely to become restless again and with an increase in temperature contrast once again and the primed, sharp water temperature contrast over the North Atlantic, the ocean-atmospheric setup looks primed yet again for a spell of stormy weather once again and that may come as soon as next week.

High pressure also appears to build over Europe next week and that could help with rapid cyclogenesis SW of the UK as an upper trough forms thanks to the presence of high pressure further east. Like we’ve seen particularly in December and January, a powerhouse trans-Atlantic jet driving energy east drops into the trough and all this energy piles, bundles and forces falling pressure within a circulation. Though storms may not become as powerful as before, the atmosphere sure looks primed enough to provide potential and we must watch this upcoming 7+ days carefully.

Latest ECMWF surface charts show ‘typical unsettled’ this week but stronger lows show up next week.

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

Source: AccuWeather Pro

The CFSv2 week 1-4 shows cold turning extreme again over the US, this could make for a stormy and very wet March.

wk1_wk2_20140216_NAsfcT

wk3_wk4_20140216_NAsfcT

Here is March. Cold US/warm UK.

CFSv2_T2m_20140216_201403

Certainly the start or first half of March looks unsettled or very unsettled but I wouldn’t go as far as to say the entire month is like that. Could see a flip during the second half of the month. Perhaps to warmer/more settled.

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