As we gaze over the charts now through next week, there’s striking similarity every 3 to 4 days. It’s every 3 to 4 days that we see a system hit while another is born, one pushes out while another quickly fills the void. Blame the abnormally strong/persistent zonal jet stream crossing the Atlantic which has in part been fuelled by a persistently cold North America and more importantly a neutral or positive NAO.
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Right now we have a substantial Atlantic trough/Europe ridge which is harnessing a very active southwest storm track directly into the UK which arguably contains more moisture. Many may be asking, why has this winter seen so many deep lows and so much rain. Note the large water temperature contrast over the North Atlantic. Right from the beginning, I had this profile responding with a negative NAO signal during the winter but as an actual fact, this may have helped fuel stronger lows aboard a stronger jet. The classic warm-cold-warm signal could have been a contributor as well as the North American temperature profile to the powerful westerlies and storm systems.
Unfortunately, I really see no end to this in the near future with the latest system sweeping on tonight, another this weekend and more appear to be on the way next week.
One must pay close attention to this setup as we press towards spring. A heck of a lot of water on the ground could mean a wetter than normal spring.
Take a look at the striking similarity in the upper pattern for tomorrow and Saturday.
Tomorrow
Saturday
Next Friday
CFSv2 500mb height anomalies show the reversal of northern blocking with significant height falls throughout the arctic mid to late month. This suggests a much more westerly flow throughout the mid-latitudes and this could be a hint of things to come. As pointed out in yesterday’s video, the NAO has remained neutral or positive throughout this winter while the AO has been negative. We tend to look for a negative AO and NAO for a cold signal over both North America and Western Europe but the NAO has not played ball at all this year.
The very cold winter the US has endured is largely linked with cold signals in the Pacific and of course we cannot ignore that very warm water in the northeast Pacific which more than likely helped pump the western ridge.
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