Midwest, East Warm Up With Rain/Flood Threat But 2nd MAJOR Arctic Blast Looms!!

Written by on January 9, 2014 in United States of America with 0 Comments

While the brutal cold lifts, we have some decent moisture pushing into pretty dry Pacific Northwest. That system drops into the Southern Plains tonight and as it does so, we will see Gulf moisture get pulled north, setting the stage for a decent rain maker up the East Coast over the next 48 hours.

A front running system currently over south Missouri into Arkansas is bringing rain, freezing rain and some light snow, this is expected to bring some light snow, sleet and freezing rain up into the Ohio Valley and even reaching the I-95 cities Friday morning but the main feature becomes more apparent tomorrow over the Mid-Mississippi Valley while the front runner moves out of the Northeast.

Expect a decent rain event over the Ohio Valley and East Coast with the main feature tomorrow into Saturday.

Here’s the projected precipitation forecasted by the QPF for the next 48 hours.

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With all the recent cold, the ground will be frozen solid and so combine frozen ground with snow cover and 1-2 inches of rain up through the Ohio Valley and Coastal Plain will present a flood threat into the early weekend. As the system moves from Missouri up into the Great Lakes, expect a steady rain widely in the East but snow, upwards of 3-6 inches may fall from parts of Missouri up into Iowa, southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. The chill which drops south on the backside of this system will be moderate brand cold, not arctic.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart by Saturday and note the moisture being tapped from the Gulf along with plenty of warm air. Expect low to perhaps mid-60s all the way to DC, upper 50s Philadelphia and mid-50s NYC.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

That system then exists with a ‘cool down’ Sunday but a decent surge of mild air pushes up into the Heartland ahead of another system crossing Canada. That warmer air reaches frozen cities such as Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland where temperatures will climb towards 40 but watch for fog as the warm, moist air flows over the snow and cold ground.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 96 hours that system lifts up into Labrador while another system containing colder air pushes into central Canada while more wet, windy and fairly mild conditions push into Washington and Oregon.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As you can see from the above chart, the pull of warmer air north is thanks to a low crossing Canada, 50s possible in Kansas City, St Louis and Cincinnati with more 60s returning to DC, 50s Philadelphia up to Boston.

Check out the snow chart through the next 60 hours. Note the snow associated with the front running system followed by several inches associated with the second system.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Another Major Cold Blast On The Way?

The push of colder air on the backside remains modest with a trough over the Gulf of Alaska which supports East Coast ridging. However a ridge builds into east Asia which in turn deepens the trough east of Hawaii which will re pump the ridge up into Alaska next week. So, we quickly see the signal returning for another plunge of brutally cold air down into the Lower 48 towards the 7-10 day period despite the upcoming 3-5 days of milder conditions.

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Here’s Saturday off the ECMWF, note the trough in the GOA with the ridge on the East Coast.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32hemisphere_48

By next Wednesday, the flow flattens south of Alaska with a trough driving colder air into the Great Lakes (colder than the late weekend shot) but notice the really cold stuff remains disconnected over Arctic Canada.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32hemisphere_144

By next Saturday, just look at the ridge that’s back on the West Coast with strong positive heights reaching right up into Alaska and even the arctic, that dislodges the really cold stuff and drives it south into the heart of the US.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32hemisphere_216

So ANOTHER shot of truly bitter air appears to return to the Continental US towards next weekend.

Here’s the surface chart by next Thursday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

240 hour 850 temps!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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