Well it’s looking more or less a lock now that winter will finally come to the UK next week! Without any stubborn ridge near the Azores, there’s nothing to stop a cold easterly flow from reaching the UK and N Atlantic ridging, as anticipated, appears to stay far enough to our west, meaning the cold reaches the UK. On the other hand, there looks as though we have a decent fight for a time between Atlantic and arctic air overhead which could lay down some decent snow and this may set the stage for some decent cold as sufficient height rises linking Greenland with Scandinavia which edge towards northern Scotland, forces incoming or approaching Atlantic lows SOUTH but close enough to perhaps throw enough moisture into the cold, to bring us some much needed snow.

Thank the retreat of the polar vortex over North America now for our colder pattern. As mentioned several times already, until we see some sort of pattern change over North America, Europe will stay largely mild as more or less all the focus of cold is between Russia and the United States with a cross polar flow.

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The term ‘polar vortex’ has been mentioned A LOT by the media with hype attached. To be clear, this is nothing new and is often associated with America’s bigger cold outbreaks. What is it? A circulation of intensely cold air typically positioned between the arctic and Hudson Bay but every so many winter’s that vortex or circulation of intense cold sinks further south than normal and this produces the coldest air in 10-30 years. The cold they’ve experienced from Canada to Florida has been worse in the past but that’s not downplaying the fact they’ve had quite the cold spell, albeit relatively short lived compared to outbreaks gone by. Another thing to remember is the fact that the past two winters and by that I mean Dec-Feb, has been fairly mild for the US and so this winter, it’s America’s turn for some real winter just like Europe bore the brunt in February 2011 and the UK back in Dec 2010. The last really severe outbreak for the Midwest and Eastern US was January 2009 but this recent outbreak was worst since 1996 or 2004.

Back to Europe and I want to show you both the ECMWF and GFS models with their turn to colder this weekend and particularly next week. Notice the height rises over Scandinavia backing west to Greenland with thicknesses lowering from Russia eventually across to the UK, Saturday through next week. Also notice that incoming low pressure from the Atlantic eventually breaks down and gets deflected south towards Iberia and the Med by the deepening and westward retrograding trough over Europe.

Firstly, here comes the next system tonight/tomorrow (below)

24 hrs

Calmer, cooler Friday into Saturday.. (below)

48 hrs

Note the colder 850 temps stretch west to east over the UK and much of the continent, that cold is actually a modified brand of the very air mass that shivered the US.

72 hrs

Cool high pressure settled over UK for a time Sunday.

96 hrs

Here comes the fight between cold and mild as high pressure builds NORTH of the UK with cold easterly flow sweeping across the North Sea but there’s a deep Atlantic low west of Ireland that may try to push mild, moist air into an increasingly colder atmosphere over the UK..

114 hrs

By next Tuesday, the ECMWF has a decent 1026mb surface high due north of Scotland extending east into Scandinavia with a cold easterly bringing cold air into the UK. Interestingly, there’s a sub-996mb low SW of the UK which could bring snow to some over Ireland and the UK.

144 hrs

Despite a cold looking surface chart, is it actually going to be colder?

5,000ft temps say yes!

By next Wednesday, the model has that cold high building down over the UK from the north which could present some clearer but much colder days and particularly nights, especially if there’s snow on the ground.

168 hrs

By next Thursday, the ECMWF has a 1028mkb high positioned between Norway and Scotland.. Cold day!

204 hrs

Check out the 5,000ft temps.

204 hrs

Cold, settled pattern continues into next weekend and likely beyond!

240 hrs

240 hrs

ECMWF shows a bullich snow cover chart over the next 10 days!

GFS agrees on the colder theme next week!

48 hrs

60 hrs

90 hrs

114 hrs

192 hrs

5,000ft temps (192 hrs)

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Tags: europe cold, europe snow, UK Snow