It may seen like a long time coming but right on schedule, the operational models are now picking up on what the CFSv2 has shown since before Christmas, a Greenland to Scandinavia block by the end of day 10 or around Jan 10th. This would coincide nicely with the 10mb strat warming over Asia and the stretching and weakening of the polar vortex.
Below is that strat warming over Siberia which stretches and greatly weakens the polar vortex and shifts it from it’s axis which has been firmly over the pole up till now.
48 hrs.
240 hrs
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As stated for a few weeks now, mid-January onwards would be the period to watch as the CFSv2 has been adamant at developing strong blocking linking Alaska, Greenland, Scandinavia as well as down over eastern Europe that would see the cold flow underneath and park over the UK and western flank of the mainland.
The CFSv2 has shown this week 1-4 for a solid couple of week now!
Thanks to the colder waters extending from Newfoundland to southern Britain, compared to winter 2011-12, there is no stubborn ridge near the Azores to stop arctic/Siberian air from reaching the UK.
As for the timing of this cold, well given how active the Atlantic pattern has been and the level of energy flowing across the Atlantic, it was clear that this stormy and largely mild pattern would be slow to break down.
Here’s the charts which show the turnaround in height field…
96 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
168 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
210 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
240 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
ECMWF upper chart/850 temps
216 hrs
240 hrs
ECMWF Control NO DIFFERENT!
240 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
276 hrs
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
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