ECMWF Goes Wild With 2 Snowstorms Coupled With Coldest Air In A Generation!

Written by on December 30, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It’s been said all along that the cold pattern this year meant business over North America with a cold November, colder December and potentially an even colder January. The past 2 years have seen warm or mild winters with last January being mild in the East with the cold and snow arriving late in the game. I guess this year is catching up big time!

With the type of warming we’re seeing over the polar stratosphere, coupled with positive PNA (West Coast and Alaska ridging) slight negative NAO and the tanking AO, the stage is set for one mighty blast of arctic air. How strong? Well the ECMWF has gone to the extreme with it’s 5-10 day scenario, first with a major Northeast snowstorm which has 6+ inches of snow from NYC north (potential New England blizzard) followed immediately after with 0 degree air driving directly into Central Park.

(SEE VIDEO ANALYSIS)

Let me show you the break down for the next week to 10 days. First the snowstorm which is a gentle 2-4, locally 6 inch snowfall through Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo and Pittsburgh associated with the northern branch disturbance, seen in green on New Year’s Day.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

This could be a bigger snow given the cold air in place. Remember, the colder air, less moisture is needed for a sizeable accumulation.

By Thursday, as that system moves into the Northeast with cold in place, the developing southern branch system moves up the coast, likely deepening off the Delmarva.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By late Thursday into Friday, the ECMWF really winds this low off Long Island with heavy snow, wind affecting NYC up to Boston and Bangor. The model shows the low bombing out with pressure dropping into the 980s. This could be a blizzard from Boston west and north with a fresh surge of even colder air than what we’re seeing now, dives into the Midwest and Lakes on the backside of the system.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the snow chart off the ECMWF for the Midwest first.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Then as you can see, the model shows Atlantic air getting involved. Keep in mind the contrast of pure arctic air wrapping into the backside of the low while it’s over warmer than normal Atlantic waters and driving mild into very cold, dry air. We could see 1-2 feet in parts of New England.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The model actually has 6 inches close to Philadelphia, even with a few inches down to DC but look at points north of NYC.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While this isn’t the biggest Northeast snowstorm, what will be interesting, is how cold the air which follows will be…

Just look at these numbers for Saturday morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

With fresh snow cover, these numbers may be overdone but by a smaller margin that you might think. With 6 inches of fresh snow, I recon -2 to +2 in Central Park is plausible, even 0 down to Philadelphia. 0 all the way to DC might be a stretch but who knows. I think the -5 it has in NYC is possibly 3-6 degrees too cold but -30, even -40 in New England is quite possible. We could see some long standing records over southern Quebec fall.

While that’s impressive and would be the coldest air since January 2004, maybe 1994, what follows (according to the ECMWF) is even wilder!

Ultimately, the ECMWF brings the entire polar vortex down into the Lower 48, presenting a real threat to MANY all-time record lows.

Take a look at this surface chart for 156 hrs or next Monday..

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Yes, that’s another southern system heading northeast towards New England but look at the thicknesses over the N Plains.

By later Monday, that system bombs out, becomes a major snowstorm, possibly much bigger than this week’s from DC to Maine. Look at 480 thickness core over Wisconsin. unbelievable! Yes likely overdone.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Those super low thickness would support near -40C 850mb temps over Iowa.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By Tuesday that monster system pulls north, driving south and east, the coldest air mass in a generation.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The model has sub-500dm thicknesses widely over the Appalachians and the 522 line well south of Atlanta.

The close up chart for the Northeast shows a 498 thickness covering a large area stretching from NYC all the way to the Kentucky line.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

How cold could that possibly be at the surface??

Well according to the ECMWF, this cold! Yes your reading that correctly, -20 Chicago, -5 to -10 NYC, around -30 over West Virginia and near 0 all the way to Atlanta.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s a Northeast close up!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Southeast close up!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Overdone? Very likely but it cannot be completely ruled out and thereason why is I never thought a 929mb low less than 200 miles off Scotland would happen and that we could get a 936mb pressure at Stornoway that would be the lowest UK pressure since 1886. This pattern we have hemisphere wide and the way things are going, makes it a winter in which anything is possible.

If we get even close to what the model is showing then we have some remarkable winter weather coming in the near future to the US.

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