Last Deep Low Strikes UK Tonight! Large-Scale Pattern Change For January!

Written by on December 26, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Yet another intense low sweeps into Ireland and the UK from the southwest later today and is set to bring yet more flooding and wind damage. The good news is, this should be the last of the VERY deep lows.

The concern spots for wind damage look to be focused over Ireland, Wales and Northwest England as well as southwest Scotland. Shipping throughout the Celtic and Irish Sea as well as the North Channel is sure to be disrupted with winds set to blow at Storm-force 11 and Violent Storm 12 which could generate gusts in excess of 80-90 mph, wave heights of 30-40ft.

On land, exposed coastal areas and higher ground around west and south Ireland, Wales, SW and NW England could well see gusts touching 80-90 mph, perhaps locally 100mph with an additional 1-3 inches of rain falling on already saturated ground.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Projected wind gusts at 10m (kts)

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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So, the worst focuses on southern Ireland, Wales and England then, as we saw with the record breaking 936mb low a few days ago, the worst transfers up into Northern Ireland and Scotland where damage is expected, more so along the coast with gusts exceeding 80 mph. Over the Highlands, we should see 110-115mph peak gusts with heavy snow and potentially blizzard conditions.

That system pulls away and it’s back to relative calm for a time with cooler days, patchy frost by night.

The next weather system arrives around New Years Eve and Day but the low is well offshore and much weaker but it should bring wetter and windier weather back across Ireland and the UK with a secondary feature that may cross the UK simply reinforcing the unsettled conditions.

Tonight and tomorrow’s low should be the last of the really intense stuff.

Here’s those surface charts for the 31 and 1st.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As we look further ahead and into the New Year, I’m still anticipating a shift in the much larger-scale pattern and both GFS ensembles and CFSv2 500mb weekly height anomalies as well as the stratospheric temperatures all point to a colder pattern.

I hope you get a chance to watch today’s video which shows the stratospheric warming that is set to take place over Siberia, I explain the possible consequences of this and also show the GFS AO ensemble chart which shows the tanking of the Arctic Oscillation. The turn to colder looks GRADUAL as this hyper active Atlantic-Europe pattern will gradually breakdown with building heights finally starting to show over the arctic and this should develop over Greenland too.

Check out the CFSv2 500mb heights and notice the strong blocking developing over the pole down into Greenland with the core of NEGATIVE heights (trough) centred over the UK. It may be a gradual turn to colder but I believe we could be in a very different weather regime by mid-January.

Week 1-2

wk1_wk2_20131225_z500

Week 3-4

wk3_wk4_20131225_z500

If these charts are correct, then January looks cold for Western Europe with blocking in the north and in the crucial areas of Greenland and eastern Europe, locking the cold pool over the UK and mainland W Europe.

Here’s the ECMWF Control 850 temps by 300 hrs or January 7.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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