Following the incredible warmth of the past weekend when temps climbed into the 80s as far north as Virginia and 70s up into the Greater NYC area, yesterday saw the coldest Christmas Day in 13 years for NYC with a high of just 28, what a difference compared to Sunday’s 71. The 28 in NYC, 23 in Boston and even 33 down in DC is in stark contrast the to warmth found Christmas Day throughout Southern California where Downtown LA enjoyed 82 and a tie for the 2nd warmest Christmas on record. The nations warmest was 86 at Camp Pendleton, CA.
The cold start was notable in Syracuse, NY where the low of -2 was in fact the coldest start to a Christmas Day since 1983 (year I was born) and it was also Charlotte, NC’s coldest start to Christmas since 1995.
Here was the Northeast highs back on Sunday!
Here was Christmas Day!
Here was the lows and yes, it sure was a cold start.
How cold? The coldest start of winter so far throughout particularly the urban corridor from Richmond to New York but it’s been colder up in New England.
We’ve e brief warm-up now pushing north through the Plains, Midwest and East but this is short lived as yet more frigid air gathers on the other side of the North Dakota border which is poised to drive into the Northern Plains by Sunday. This charge of cold looks likely to be the coldest yet and it will eventually push all the way to Florida by New Year. The entire polar vortex drops out of Hudson Bay and gets close to New England New Year’s Day.
This could be one of the coldest run ups to New Year in many years if the models are correct.
Here’s the ECMWF 500mb/850mb temps Sunday through New Year’s Day!
72 hrs
96 hrs
120 hrs
144 hrs
For the first time this year, temperatures could stay below 0 in Minneapolis while Chicago endures single digit highs with subzero lows Monday-Tuesday and by New Years Eve, night time lows may be in the teens from DC to NYC, single digits in Boston with highs New Year’s day struggling to get out of the low-20s.
That’s one very powerful polar vortex which drops a little south of Hudson Bay by New Year. Given the type of blocking we’re seeing starting to show into January, we should watch that vortex as it may at some point even drop into New England like we saw back during two severe arctic outbreak’s back in January 2004 which drove the thermometer to 0 twice in Central Park, 3 in Philadelphia and DC. This is the type of pattern which could do the same.
The major cold which drops out of Canada Sunday through Wednesday next week should pullback briefly before another comes calling towards the end of next week.
The GFS suggests a significant storm winds up over the heartland.
Check out the 240 hr GFS surface chart.
That could be a big wind, snow, even severe weather maker.. Potent arctic air drives south on rear!
268 hrs
(Top image: Courtesy of @GlenCoveEMS)
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Here’s the 850 temps.
240 hrs
288 hrs
The GFS has a reinforcing shot of stronger cold by 384 hrs.
Plenty of snow cover for the arctic express to run along through New Year.
This is definitely the type of winter which will be dominated by frequent waves of cold with any warm-up’s brief.
We’ve seen a cold Christmas and likely even colder New Year in the East and models are showing more waves of cold into the first and second week of January.
The CFSv2 500mb height anomalies show why the cold pattern will hold and should grow stronger.
Week 1-2 shows strong blocking over the pole and should help stop of arctic air escaping. A sustained 1-2 week period may be looming where a major wave of cold drops out of Hudson Bay and simply stays there as blocking highs build in over top and out off the east coast, stopping the trough from sweeping out into the Atlantic.
The GFS Arctic Oscillation ensemble backs up the CFSv2 blocking over the pole.
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