The Atlantic storm as expected, struck overnight packing damaging winds with gusts exceeding 100 mph as well as producing flooding rains, even snow. Throughout today, a secondary front with reinforcing cold air brought snow to reasonably low levels as far south as Wales and the Midlands and this will continue progressing south tonight. Much of Northern Ireland and Scotland saw some snow with significant accumulation over higher ground. This snow is all thanks to feed of colder air sweeping in on the backside of last night’s storm system. It’s cold which originated over Greenland and was pulled into the system as it was developing to the east of Newfoundland. This system, like many, was a seed which blossomed over North America but they intensify greatly once they encounter the large baroclinic temperature contrast over the North Atlantic, helped not only by a powerhouse jet but warm SST’s beneath.

At it’s peak during the early hours of Thursday morning, with pressure in the low fell into the low 950s (mb) just off Scotland, coastal gusts topped 90 mph on both ends of the British Isles. A top low level gust of 94 mph was recorded at exposed and frequently ‘windy’, Needles Point on the Isle of Wight, while the other, even windier, Western Isles saw gusts of 92 mph at Stornoway, 90 mph on South Uist.

Check out this incredible image of not just the current Atlantic bomb north of Scotland but another that’s winding up over the western North Atlantic which is heading towards Iceland. This presents the UK and western mainland of Europe with further wet, windy, chilly conditions into the weekend.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Here was the scene from out of my attic window this morning.

Here comes that next low which track up towards Iceland but it’s frontal boundary and sprawling wind field brings more unsettled weather  to Ireland and the UK.

This weekend’s wet, windy and eventually chilly conditions may be nothing compared to what’s brewing next week. The ECMWF has still to back down on it’s ridiculous depth of central pressure off Scotland late Christmas Eve.

Check out these sea level pressure chart

Let’s take a closer look.

Here’s the jet stream forecast by Christmas Eve and notice the lack of winds over Europe thanks to the big high which remains firmly in charge while there’s an incredibly strong (jet stream) speed max roaring ESE across the Atlantic towards Iberia. The model is suggesting 200-220kt winds at the 200-300mb level or roughly 45,000ft above the surface. The core of the trough is SE of Ireland and here, all that jet energy will pile into the trough, spinning up potentially one of the strongest low’s in many a year, perhaps on record.

If this plays out, it is conceivable that a sub-940mb low could form and get awfully close to the NW UK around Christmas Day and if that happens, we’re likely to see some wicked wind, rain followed by spells of heavy snow as colder air would likely follow in the storm’s wake. I am waiting to see if the models start raising pressure with next week’s system as we progress through this weekend and into next week.

The latest windstream chart shows the strongest winds focused over the Western Isles and not so much over the UK mainland which would be good.

Look at this 10m wind barb chart and note the central pressure at 933mb!

Plenty of cold follows this low.

Here’s the snow chart through 168 hrs.

Some in Ireland and the Northern UK, MAY see a surprise white Christmas given these charts but it wouldn’t be a widespread event. The chances overall remain LOW.

More low pressure will impact between Christmas and New Year.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]

Tags: atlantic storm, cold, Europe Storm, europe weather, snow, UK Storm, wind