UK Storm: Hurricane-Force Winds & Flooding Rains To Be Followed By Snow

Written by on December 18, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

We’re in the midst of a very active, even hyper active pattern over Western Europe these days with +NAO/AO which is supporting a N Atlantic trough/Europe ridge with huge temperature difference which is producing a 200+mph jet stream. The atmospheric environment is perfect for extremely deep low pressure development through Christmas. Unfortunately Ireland and the UK are bearing the brunt of a major Atlantic low tonight and hurricane-force winds are already impacting parts of Highland Scotland. Winds will worsen throughout the overnight as the storm centre, projected to deepen to around 950mb (strongest yet), is set to pass roughly 150 miles north of Scotland tonight.

Here’s the ECMWF surface pressure/precipitation chart by early tomorrow morning and note the 952mb centre just off the Isle of Lewis with the tight squeeze of isobars to the south, hammering Scotland’s West Coast with storm-force winds.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Here’s a look at the latest satellite image and you can clearly see the centre of circulation north of Northern Ireland and west of Scotland, heading east with pressure on land now down into the 960s (mb) and still falling). The core of strongest winds have yet to come ashore along both Northern Ireland’s north coast and Scotland’s west coast. That’s expected between 12-6am.

Source: Weather Online)

Source: Weather Online)

The main rain band on the leading edge is now pushing across the heart of the UK, likely producing local flooding and very nasty travel conditions.

Source: Weather Online

Source: Weather Online

These types of low’s have an incredible upper support with powerhouse winds able to transfer downwards.

Just look at the ‘off the scale’ winds at 500mb. That hook in the upper wind field shows the injection of of warm, moist sub-tropical air into the storm from the southwest while very cold, dry air gets drawn from Greenland. Warmer than normal water temperatures below also add energy to the system.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The strongest winds will be found overnight tonight along Northern Ireland’s north coast and Northwest Scotland.

ECMWF 10 metre wind stream chart. Note the core of strongest winds on the south side of the core, here’s where stronger mid and upper level winds can drop towards the surface.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The ECMWF shows some very intense winds initially off Ireland’s west coast with 90kt gusts but on land wind gusts (10m) of 70-80kts (80-92 mph) are expected. These are sure to bring down countless trees and powerlines in exposed areas.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As you can see from the 30 hr ECMWF 10m wind gusts, the strongest winds will be over the Western Isles and exposed west coast of the mainland.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Up above 1,500ft, expect gusts in exposed west facing ridges to see gusts of 130+mph. We could well see gusts exceed those projected by a strong storm which hit Scotland a couple of weeks ago which produced a gust of 142 mph.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the projected snowfall.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS is bolder!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The models continue to show an even stronger, potentially record breaking storm system striking the UK Christmas Day.

As expected, the pressure is a little higher than yesterday with low 940s rather than mid 930s. I think the pressure could continue rising on the models but if it doesn’t, this could be a record breaking deep low or certainly one of the deepest lows to impact the UK in many years. Like with tonight’s low, some very cold air follows in it’s wake and so bitter cold and snow is possible either Christmas night or Boxing Day following exceptionally strong winds.

Here’s the latest off the ECMWF.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

More tomorrow!

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  1. nigel says:

    congratlions from a loyal subscriber; great weather forcast; the weather looks like it will turn colder during january;have a fantastic xmas and a happy new year

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