UK-bound Storm Generates 47ft Waves, Xmas Day Blockbuster?

Written by on December 17, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We have some serious 30-45, 000ft winds racing across the North Atlantic now and through the coming 10 days with an atmospheric environment that’s perfect for ‘exceptionally’ deep low pressure development. The region SW of Ireland is prime for development where a semi-permanent trough is positioned ahead of a Europe high.

Air that’s accelerating as it drops into the trough, creates spin and low pressure formation with air rapidly rising while pressure falls sharply at the surface at an astonishing rate when you’ve a 200+mph jet pile driving energy into a corner. The environment couldn’t be better in coming days over the northeast Atlantic.

We saw a decent storm hit Scotland and Northern Ireland back on Saturday, another is poised to strike tomorrow with the full-force hitting tomorrow evening and more is likely to follow thanks to the energy rich atmosphere over the Atlantic while a blocking high remains firm over the continent.

Both GFS, ECMWF and others models show a 200+ jet stream at 200-300mb or 40,000ft crossing from Canada towards Europe, the jet max can be found where the greatest thermal gradient is and that’s due south of Greenland. The incubation region is SW of Ireland where the ‘semi-permanent’ upper and low level trough is positioned, storms like tomorrow night’s should track NE just off Scotland’s coast.

GFS shows 350 km/h or 217 mph jet max winds racing across the Atlantic tonight.

GFS shows 350 km/h or 217 mph jet max winds racing across the Atlantic tonight.

Check out the 850 temperature chart which shows why there’s such an extreme jet stream racing across the Atlantic.

gfs-6-18

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The UK sits beneath dangerous territory and we’re likely to find out even more so tomorrow evening compared to Saturday with the deepest low of the season passing by. Winds on the south and east side of the storm’s centre should gust 60-70 mph but the concern is on the southwest and west side where isobars are tighter, winds are expected to exceed 80 mph even across Scotland’s populated central lowlands, 140-150 mph winds are possible in elevations above 1,500ft. According to the ECMWF, tomorrow night’s low should make it’s closest approach to Scotland, packing the strongest west winds, with a core surface pressure BELOW 950mb.

Ahead of that very developing storm, we’re seeing a buoy north of Scotland and west of Shetland reporting wave heights of 45 feet, 47 ft earlier.

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Here’s the ECMWF surface chart early tomorrow morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By early Thursday, note the deep storm centre just off Scotland.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

A COLD, even snowy Thursday follows in the wake of the low with snow levels potentially dropping close to sea level. Highs across NI, Scotland and the North of England may struggle to get above 4 or 5C in most spots.

Here’s the 850 temps on the backside.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF snow chart through 72 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

With another low swinging up into Iceland Thursday and Friday, the pressure field never really gets a chance to slacken and so a raft of heavy, frequent showers as well as longer spells of rain sweep across the Northern and Central UK with moderate to strong WSW wind on the heels of the Wednesday night system.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

It remains unsettled into the early part of next week but another system looks set to develop on an even STRONGER jet stream.

Check out the GFS jet stream forecast of Christmas Day.

gfs-5-192

You can’t help be notice the large area of maximum jet winds of 217 mph or higher, quite incredible!

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart on Christmas Day.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Closer look at the UK STILL shows pressure with centre of low just NW of Scotland down to 936mb. I still think this is too low.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

That’s a low that if occurred would likely be a record breaker for the UK, the ECMWF has a 200kt or 230MPH jet supporting such a low, an off the scale intensity.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The model STILL has the EXTREME solution around Christmas Day, so this is certainly something to continue watching closely. I will be very surprised if we get even close to this intensity in terms of the low but it sure is interesting to see how the model keeps showing this. The model also keeps showing a cold backside with potential for snow later Christmas into Boxing Day as stated in earlier posts.

Hum, check out the snow chart at 218 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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