ECMWF Shows EXTREME Chart For UK Christmas Day

Written by on December 16, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

We’re in a stormy pattern these days with wild weather impact Northern Ireland and Scotland over the past weekend but the ECMWF is taking this current pattern even further, suggesting a potentially record breaking low right around Christmas. 960, even 950 isn’t out of the question but once you get into the 940s, well that’s more extreme and likely in record territory. The ECMWF however takes it a step further and brings a 936mb low close to the west coast of the UK early Christmas Day, with the centre crossing at 940mb. That is practically unheard of for two reasons, depth of pressure and it being on Christmas Day.

Check the below surface chart for Christmas Day off the ECMWF.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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As stated, not only would 940mb at landfall be extremely rare for the UK overall, the chances of seeing such an event on Christmas would be even more exceptional. I don’t buy the depth of this low but believe the general model idea of having a strong low over or close to the UK Christmas Day.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The exceptionally deep low spins over the North Sea later Christmas Day bringing cold NNW severe gales.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

GFS is different with no monster low over the UK but it looks colder.

Christmas looks cold, unsettled with a stiff breeze.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Interestingly, the GFS has a decent low spinning over the North Sea on Boxing Day which suggests a chilly one with north wind.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Chilly at 850 Christmas Day..

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

The coming days presents plenty of rough, even stormy weather with the next deep low which presents gales o0r severe gales to parts of the UK.

The trend remains colder towards Christmas according to both GFS and ECMWF. More tomorrow.

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  1. Penny says:

    Hi Mark congrats on your beautiful daughter hope you are all doing well. Im a bit concerened over the models and what there showing is it really gonna be that bad !

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