Active Atlantic-Europe Pattern Returning / Models Suggest Record 930mb Low!

Written by on December 10, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The pattern is poised to become more active late week for Western Europe with the Atlantic becoming much more turbulent once again. With the high over Europe shifting a little further east, so the door is open for frequent spells of wet and windy weather. Both NAO and AO support the return of an active Atlantic-Europe pattern through the next 10 days.

For all you winter weather lovers out there, remember that the NAO/AO only needs to abruptly flip and that STILL CAN HAPPEN late in the month despite a rather mild looking setup through December 20.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Current jet stream position.. reason for such mild weather for UK these days!

Current jet stream position.. reason for such mild weather for UK these days!

Think back to December 2009 which was a rather mild month up until the 15th with wet, windy weather and an NAO/AO similar to what we have now. All of a sudden, a pattern can flip like we saw around the 18th of December 2009 and for many parts of the UK, many suddenly found themselves experiencing a white Christmas. There’s NO guarantee either way. Another important aspect to consider is the extreme cold we’re seeing across North America. That’s occurring when the NAO/AO is positive and the records that are falling left, right and centre, are records which date back to previous ‘bad winters’ on both sides of the pond.

We here in the UK sit in a no man’s land through 48 hours but by 72 hrs and beyond, the front that’s been hanging just enough to the north and west to allow some decent days, will drop down across the UK bringing wetter, windier conditions Thursday on into the weekend.

Both ECMWF and GFS show a series of hits or glancing blows on Ireland and the UK through next week as you can see in the below GFS surface/precip charts but what’s interesting, is what BOTH models are hinting at starting the week after next.

72 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

105 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

120 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

156 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

180 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

I can’t help but glare at the low the models are showing around the 16 or 17th. Yes, that’s 930mb not far from Iceland and yes, that would likely challenge the record for deepest North Atlantic low. Thanks a very powerful west-east jet roaring across the Atlantic with a big stone up ahead (Europe high) which forces the tremendous amount of energy to pile up and bundle.

GFS 186 hrs

gfs-0-186

Interestingly the ECMWF shows similar by 120 hrs.

ECM1-144

Long way off but let’s keep an eye on this.

My suspicion is that with this upcoming pattern adjustment, the tongue of cold water extending from Newfoundland out into the central North Atlantic will extend further east, perhaps adjoining the cooler waters around the UK and Iberia, that would make an excellent water temp profile for the tripole and would ‘help’ encourage blocking as we head into winter.

anomnight_12_9_2013

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top