Europe Next 7-10+ Days: Mild In West, Cold In East, Change Before Xmas?

Written by on December 8, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The cold air will continue to shift into eastern Europe this week as ridging builds into the west from the Atlantic. Snow and cold sinks deeper into southeastern parts tomorrow through Wednesday as the same storm which hammered the Northern UK spins over Russia to the NE of Moscow. That low will bring further snow to St Petersburg down into Moscow and Kiev and the stinging NNW flow will drive deep into the Balkans and Turkey. We could see big snows in the mountains over Turkey this week while temperatures struggle to reach 10C as far south as Athens and Nicosia, Cyprus. Subfreezing highs will take over Turkey late week.

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While the cold focuses over the east of Europe now, we’re back to mild SW winds over Ireland and the UK throughout the upcoming workweek.

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart/850 temps through this week and note the 850 temp profile.

24 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by ECMWF

Courtesy/Owned by ECMWF

72 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by ECMWF

Courtesy/Owned by ECMWF

120 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by ECMWF

Courtesy/Owned by ECMWF

Note that as the ridge and mild Atlantic air progresses east into western Europe, the cold is forced southeast along with the upper cut off low, so it turns colder with an increased chance of heavy snow over the Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. A frontal system will hang with a SW-NE orientation over the Northwest UK and Ireland which means a continued flow of moist air and fairly brisk but mild SW to S winds. The next 5-7 days will be mildest along and beneath the frontal zone where wind and rain will be but for much England and Wales, it’s drier, brighter but cooler. 6 to 9C for highs compared to 10-13C in Scotland where SW or S winds will be strongest. Where skies are clearer and winds lightest, that’s where it’s going to be coldest at night and that will be across the east Midlands and South. Plenty of rain over the next several days for parts of Ireland, NI and western Scotland.

Below is the ECMWF surface chart through the upcoming week.

6 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

48 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

96 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

144 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While there no doubt the ridge rules through the next 7-10 days, the ECM control and monthly runs still show the return of much colder air between the 19 and 23rd.

Still Signs Of Cold For UK And W Europe Before Christmas!

Interestingly both models remain with their different solutions but both bring cold back into the UK.

The Control has the trough dropping south from Greenland and Iceland into the UK and near continent around the 20th, 21st while the Monthly has a strong pool of cold diving into eastern Europe and with high pressure building over Scandinavia, that cold arctic air slides west  across the continent, eventually reaching the UK around the 23rd and Christmas Eve.

Control

20th

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

21st

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Monthly

21st

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

23rd

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

23rd

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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