10-15 Day Mild Pattern Setting Up For Europe

Written by on December 6, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 4 Comments

Following the destructive power of yesterday’s storm which not only brought hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, flooding, sleet and snow to the UK and western Europe but it also produced the most significant North Sea tidal storm surge for England since 1953 according to the Environment Agency. Parts of Europe was also hit very hard by the hurricane-like surge with many images uploaded to twitter of a flooded Hamburg, Germany.

Check out this image below of buildings severely damaging, even destroyed by the surge and pounding surf.


-57C in Greenland, -26.2C in Iceland

The destructive and deadly Atlantic low tapped the coldest air of the season in it’s wake, while temperatures dipped to -57C over central Greenland, this morning saw coldest air of the season across Iceland with temperatures through today plunging well below -10C across the country with even the coastal capital of Reykjavik shivering at -10.4C this morning. Most interior locales dropped below -18 or -20C with the coldest spot, Kolka sinking to -26.2C.

Already, temperatures tonight are back down to -25C over the heart of the Highlands, so tonight is likely to be several degrees colder, potentially pushing -30C by dawn Saturday.

That deep low continues to spin away over the heart of northern Europe and the cold air which drove south over the UK in it’s wake is now shifting with the storm, east, giving way to a substantial push of mild Atlantic air which arrives as quickly as tomorrow. In fact it’s warming significantly over western Britain while it remains cold in the east. If your out and about tonight, you’ll probably find it cold with snow even falling in some spots but head out the door in the morning and it’s likely to feel very different indeed.

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The upcoming milder and high pressure dominated pattern means business with many likely to write off winter after this upcoming 7-10 days of no cold.

While many winter weather lovers may panic at the sight of the charts below through the next couple of weeks, there’s still positive indication of cold returning and holding in the final week running up to Christmas. One must watch the United States which is bearing the brunt of probably the strongest cold pool anywhere across the hemisphere right now. When this cold relaxes and retreats which it will, I wonder whether it’s Europe that’s next up for the chill..

I always stated that we could have mild through a large portion of December but I believed it would turn colder towards Christmas and beyond with the worst of winter in January and February.

Here’s the rather mild and benign ECMWF idea through the next 10 days. As I say, DON’T PANIC when looking at these charts.


Mon 9


Wed 11


Fri 13


The NAO remains in a flat line state with either or towards late month according to the GFS ensembles.


The AO is rocketing back into strong positive once again but keep in mind the intensity of cold over the US at the moment and well into next week despite the polar vortex remaining strong and set to grow much stronger.


Below is the 10mb stratosphere temperature also based on the GFS and it’s clear to see that the vortex remains strong and intact over the pole, it even strengthens by 240 hrs



240 hrs


BOTH European Control and Monthly long range models show the upcoming warmth with strong positive heights centred near or over the UK giving way to a colder pattern towards the 20th, they remain adamant that colder times return.

Still too far out for any real confidence but it’s certainly interesting to see both models, although with varying solutions, show the trough and arctic air returning just in time for Christmas.

Below is the ECM Control

Fri 20

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sat 21

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As for the monthly run, well it’s got it turning cold again but in a much different way to the control with cold dropping into eastern Europe first then as high pressure builds over Scandinavia, the cold pool retrogrades west, eventually reaching the UK just in time for Santa’s arrival. Of course this monthly run solution would make for a cold period right across Europe.

Below is the ECM monthly.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sun 22

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Mon 23

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro


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4 Reader Comments

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  1. Barry says:

    Is it not looking more likely that the NAO will go strongly positive late month? If that happens not lookng good at all for a white xmas.

  2. Mark Vogan says:

    Need to look at the big picture, Kaz.

  3. Julie Grey says:

    I’d say now winter this side of new year not going to happen! Looking to Jan Feb maybe! Not too unusual I’d say forget the white Christmas anyway! Not going to happen!

  4. KAZ says:

    Its hard not to panic when looking at all that warmth coming into uk!

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