Heavy Snow Followed By 0 To -30°F Air To Dive Into Rockies & Plains!

Written by on December 2, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

We have a truly wild next 14 day period across the Lower 48 and the wild stuff has begun over the Pacific Northwest, Rockies and by tomorrow, the Dakotas with a low which is drawing on some of the coldest air not seen in some time.

The combination of warm air flowing north up through the Rockies, pacific moisture and bitter cold all converging within a deepening low, is producing blizzard or near blizzard conditions across southern BC, Alberta down into the US Rockies today, tonight and through tomorrow. Upwards of 2 possibly 3 feet of snow is expected over the higher terrain of Colorado west of Denver up into Wyoming with 1-2 feet expected over the Cascades of Oregon into Idaho and Montana. As the low pushes east, so the heavy snows, gales and blizzard conditions extend east across the Dakotas where some spots may see 20 inches of snow with huge drifts by the end of tomorrow.

Once that low reaches Minnesota tomorrow night and Wednesday, so the floodgates open for some brutal cold.

Below is the ECMWF surface/precipitation charts through this week.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

48 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

72 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

96 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Notice that as the trough and frigid air sinks south, precipitation intensifies along the boundary separating mild from very cold, the models are seeing a low form over the southwest which rides the boundary from Texas up to the Great Lakes. This system will bring a wild combination of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain but it could be far enough south to bring snow to Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, even northern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by this weekend.

Here’s the ECMWF snow depth forecast through the next 72 hrs, before the southern system forms.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the GFS for snow on the ground through 72 hrs.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Here’s the 120 hr which sees the snow produced by the southwest system.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Note the sizeable 3-6 inch swath of snow from near Lubbock up through OKC with that second low.

As for just how cold it gets over the next 5 days, check out these projected ‘highs’ through this week according to TWC.

Tues Highs

Source: weather.com

Source: weather.com

Wednesday Highs

Source: weather.com

Source: weather.com

Thursday Highs

Source: weather.com

Source: weather.com

Friday Highs

Source: weather.com

Source: weather.com

By Friday, notice highs are struggling to reach the mid-20s all the way down to OKC and mid-30s in Dallas, what a shock to the system given the warm start to this week with upper 70s and low 80s Tuesday. While Dallas flirts with snow with at least a rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow mix there’s most likely to be a disruptive snowfall up in OKC and Tulsa and once that system has exited, look out for single digits lows even in Downtown OKC. Amarillo goes from 70s tomorrow to 10s for highs Friday and there could well be 2-4 inches of snow here too. Lows could dip below 0 by Saturday morning over the Panhandle.

As for lows, well check out these lows according to the ECMWF model.

Thu AM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Fri AM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Sat AM

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

While HIGHS are likely to stay in the -10s across parts of Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas late week with near 0 as far south as Minneapolis, it looks like the SW low which runs from Texas to Quebec, could tug a second lobe of the truly brutal stuff early next week which could hold highs below 0 in Minneapolis and single digits in Chicago.

This is a rough next couple of weeks for sure and next week will certainly be a lot colder in the East where it’s warm through most of this week.

CFSv2 shows a bitter 6-10 day period for the US then a pull back day 8-14 but remaining cold.

wk1_wk2_20131201_NAsfcT

By week 3, the model shows a frigid Canada while there’s warming across the Lower 48, especially week 4.

wk3_wk4_20131201_NAsfcT

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