In today’s post I want to take another look at the coming arctic blast late week and through next weekend for Ireland, UK and pretty much ALL of Europe.

From looking at the last 4 to 6 days of modelling, I expect the upcoming cold spell to last 3 to 5 days starting later Thursday with a chance of snow as a strong low passes to the north bringing a sharp temperature drop, gales with a potential rain change to snow scenario, most likely over the North and Central part of the UK as well as over parts of Ireland and to a greater degree over parts of western Europe. The overall hemispheric pattern remains fluid and progressive and so that’s why the cold is unlikely to hold particularly long over the UK but the further into Europe you go the cold should linger as well as become more intense as the trough and cold pool deepens while milder air and ridging builds north around the northern periphery of the cold pool.

Dependant upon snow cover, the cold may hold longer over the UK as snow cover would help hold the cold with Atlantic air riding over top.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the ECMWF surface/precip and 850mb temps.

24 hrs

24 hrs

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72 hrs

72 hrs

120 hrs

120 hrs

144 hrs

144 hrs

ECMWF hints at -10C over the Grampians of Scotland by 00z Sunday (168 hrs)

192 hrs

192 hrs

Snow is always tough to forecast, especially for the UK because it can be tough to get snow when so closely surrounded by water. The air mass must be cold enough to support to all the way to the ground and course, the colder the air is, often the less moisture there is available.

I expect to see some snow and potentially down close to sea level on both sides of the North Sea. This air mass coming south looks colder than the last surge and keep in mind that water temps are cooler.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow chart through 168 hrs

Closer look at the UK.

Here’s the GFS ‘snow on the ground’ chart through 168 hrs

Closer look at the UK…

Overdone or some truth? Will be interesting.

This plunge of arctic air almost looks certain to be followed by the return of Atlantic air but notice how the mild ridging rides up and over the cold pool, so it warms north of the UK first, then the mild sinks south. However, just how quickly it warms back up will depend upon whether there’s any snow cover, because if there’s snow on the ground, the milder air may take longer to erode the low level arctic air.

The reason for the continued progressiveness of this pattern is due to the largely neutral NAO but there is signs of more and more blocking taking over the arctic in the longer term and closer to Christmas.

As for the stratosphere, it remain firmly COLD and in fact the polar vortex appears to strengthen with further cooling at the 10mb level over the next 10 days but this is pretty normal for this time of year given the +AO.

72 hrs

174 hrs

For the real deal in terms of a LOCKED DOWN cold pattern over the US and Europe, we’re looking for those yellows to start shifting north towards the pole. This stratospheric warming would disload and split the main vortex which up until now is intact and continuing to build the arctic reservoir. This makes the coming arctic blast for the US and Europe all the more interesting because just think what COULD happen if and when we see the AO going negative.

Since the start of October, the pattern has proven itself that it can deliver arctic air even to the UK and while the upcoming shot will once again be short lived certainly for the west, the seeds are being sown.

Check out the latest SST anomalies.

Nov 28

Notice the cooling as expected around the UK while it’s warming just south of Greenland. Even with a neutral to slightly positive NAO and positive AO, we’re still getting the cold into the UK, Europe and to a much greater degree, the United States but once these indexes flip, look out because the ridge should position close to where waters are warmest over the North Atlantic. We’re seeing a perfect example of this in the Pacific with strong ridging extending from just east of Hawaii up to Alaska which is drilling major cold south into the Lower 48. For us here in the UK as well as Europe overall, the ridge should settle where SST’s are warmest while the trough and cold should go to where the waters are cooler than normal.

Take a look at the difference in water temperatures around the UK just in November. (28th above and 4th below).

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Tags: cold, europe cold, europe snow, europe winter, snow, UK Snow, winter