We have some incredibly interesting weather unfolding across much of the US as a storm system brings some much needed rain to parts of Southern California while snows are breaking out now over the Southern Plains where highs were stuck in the low to mid-20s today, that’s quite a drop from yesterday’s mid and upper 70s. In fact, while temperatures hovered 30 to 35 below normal this afternoon, sleet and snow was reported not too far from Dallas. That’s on top of the bitter morning it was over the Northern and Central Plains.

Check out the lows from this morning.

Think that’s cold, well it will get far worse before it get’s better if you live anywhere in the Midwest and particularly the East where it remains fairly mild at the moment.

Here are tonight’s projected lows.

Texas Snow, Even Dallas?

As for snow, well the SW storm takes a dive into the northwest Gulf of Mexico which allows the gulf moisture to get thrown into the cold air currently over the Texas Panhandle as well as Oklahoma, so a strip of 1-3 inches of snow is expected tonight into tomorrow.

Here’s the ECM surface chart by 18 hrs

Snow projections.

Notice the model is even hinting at snow very close to Dallas.

Tonight of course will be cold and following the overnight chill, as the arctic high continues to expand, look for a frigid day tomorrow from North Dakota to Iowa and Illinois where the core of cold air pushing over.

Check out these highs for Saturday, impressive for this early!

Tomorrow night’s lows. I would imagine there will be quite a few records falling tomorrow night..

Very impressive to think Minneapolis could flirt with 0 this early while Chicago drops to around 10. I suspect sub 0 lows will occur over Iowa. Check out the mid-10s for KC and St Louis!

Record Sunday For The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic

The core of cold shifts into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Sunday and following a night in the upper 20s from DC to NYC, low 20s for Boston, it looks highly likely that Sunday will be record or near record cold throughout the I-95 corridor. For much of the day, temperatures as far south as DC, possibly even Richmond could stay in the 20s with a high right around 32 while up in Philly and NYC, the high may struggle to reach 30 or 31. According to PhillyWx.com, the record high in Philly Sunday is 34, that should fall.

Here are the highs expected Sunday.

Thanksgiving Week Snowstorm?

The surface chart during Monday shows the arctic high sliding right over the Appalachians and into the Coastal Plains bringing an unusually cold November day.

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By Tuesday the model shows the storm systems gathering in the Southeast, this could be ugly for Florida with severe weather possible while it’s a cold rain, perhaps snow for parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and particularly the Carolina Mountains.

Notice that as the storm gathers over the Southeast, drawing warm, moist air up from the Gulf, there’s a low that’s diving into the Great Lakes but more importantly transporting the second surge of arctic air. The vital aspect to this in terms of snowfall in the East, is the timing and convergence of the cold and moisture.

Here’s the chart by 120 hrs.

The ECMWF shows a slightly POSITIVE tilt to the trough which suggests that the system, while riding the coast, struggles to throw moisture INLAND while the arctic air, may struggle to wrap around the low. This suggests that yes, we’ll see interior snows over the mountains, but little in the coastal plain from Philly up to Boston. Perhaps we’ll see rain change to snow on the backside but this could be minimal.

Here’s the 144 hr snow chart and note the surprise accumulation over parts of the Southeast.

Closer look at the Northeast.

Way too far out to tell just yet but will have more tomorrow. It sure to get darn cold on the backside of that low though!

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Tags: Thanksgiving cold weather, Thanksgiving snowstorm, Thanksgiving weather