W Europe Cold Pattern To Linger Well Into Next Week, Turns Stormy Wednesday!

Written by on November 18, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

A frontal system is progressing south over the UK, pushing out the mild and pulling in the coldest air mass of the season so far. Scotland turned very bright and sunny this afternoon as cold air flows south.

Here’s a late afternoon view from space showing the cold NW flow progressing south over Scotland, blowing in from a frigid Greenland and Iceland.

getpicture

Here’s a close up of where our air is coming from, a VERY cold and snowy Iceland. The country is almost entirely snow covered at the moment.

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Here was the scene as the sun set in the Southeast of Iceland this afternoon.

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The cold NW flow is cooling the lowest mile of the atmosphere over Scotland and Northern Ireland this evening. The brisk breeze is driving showers southeast and those showers are now turning to sleet and snow even at lower levels. Through the overnight, don’t be surprised to see it snow at low levels.

Here’s this morning’s 6z 850 temps.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s for the same time tomorrow morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Check out the temperatures for the same time period tomorrow morning.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

I suspect temperatures will be at or below freezing in pretty much all inland Scottish towns and even the cities tomorrow morning with -2 to -4C away from the urban heat island. A few Glens in both the Highlands and Southern Uplands which see night long clear skies and fairly light winds will dip to -6 or -7C.

As for snow, well those showers should become confined to coastal areas overnight tonight but look at the below GFS snow forecast through 72 hours and no, not all of the UK, Northern Ireland and indeed all of Western Europe will turn white but I suspect MANY could well at least observe sleet or snow in the air at some point over the next 3 to 5 days.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

As mentioned before, the blues I believe is the model trying to sniff out where accumulating snow may occur and certainly the Highlands, Southern Uplands, Pennines, Snowdonia and Mourne Mountains could well turn white for a time.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

It’s plain cold tomorrow with highs of 0C in the Central and North Highlands, 2-4C in the Central Lowlands, much of Northern Ireland and Northern England, 5-7C in the South but Wednesday won’t be as cold in terms of air temperature but it sure will FEEL as cold if not colder. A deep low crosses Orkney and drops down over the North Sea during the day. This low could bring a belt of rain, sleet and snow down across the UK as well as produce gale to severe gale-force winds across the North and East.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

By 48 hours the low is down to 980mb and beginning to drop south over the North Sea.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Expect widespread cold NW gales with gusts widely 40-60 mph widely, 65-75 mph on exposed coasts, 100-110 mph over the Cairngorms.

By 72 hours the low spreads out over Southern England drawing in cold from Scandinavia.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Once the low exits to the south, the UK gets another push of colder air.

Here’s the 850 temps by 90 hrs or Friday.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb/850 temps for the next 10 days and it’s clear to see that the model appears to hold onto the cold theme well into next week.

24 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_24

72 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_72

120 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_120

144 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

192 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_192

240 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

Even with any pull back of the cold over the next 10 days, we’re likely to see the cold come back sooner rather than later given the trend towards negative in the indexes late month into early December.

ao_sprd2

nao_sprd2

This week’s cold pattern is a good sign folks. The very fact we have the pattern we do right now with blocking west and north, shows that it can happen this winter and this will significantly cool our surrounding waters which should hold the strongest heights compared to normal further west and north towards Greenland as we push into winter when the pattern should start to lock in. The true ocean-atmosphere feedback doesn’t really kick in till we enter the winter months and by then, with blocking likely to take hold and we see a slowdown of the progressive pattern we’ve been seeing, we should see a built up of stronger than normal heights over Greenland and over the high latitudes with cold, arctic air becoming trapped underneath further down the road.

Check out the latest 700mb height anomalies for December and January off the CFSv2. Notice no significant blocking next month but for January the model has a significant positive height field across the arctic, as well as over NW North America and to an extent Greenland and the Davis Straits. This supports the mean trough over eastern North America and Western Europe.

glbz700MonInd1

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