January Level Cold To Dive Into Lower 48 Late Week

Written by on November 18, 2013 in United States of America with 0 Comments

Last week’s Midwest and Eastern cold blast hit while both the NAO and AO was strongly positive but given that those indexes are heading towards neutral and negative, it’s plausible to believe what both the GFS and ECMWF are showing for the US late this week into next.

While the last blast was a chilly one, that would be nothing compared to what’s coming. That’s if the models are correct and it will be interesting to see whether they hold onto the bullish intensity of this next push of arctic-Siberian air. We of course saw record lows down to the Carolinas and Georgia but this shot would likely be the strongest for November since 1989.

Check out the vast snowpack already established over Siberia and Canada.

cursnow

North America

cursnow_usa

The stage is already set as much of Canada is snow covered and there is major cold already established over most of Western Canada but through this week, arctic and even Siberian air will continue to feed this reservoir of cold and by late week ridging will build into Alaska and the Yukon. As heights rise, so this bitterly cold air will dive into Montana and Dakotas spreading south and east this weekend into early next week.

Check out just how cold this is air coming south according to the GFS. Here’s the 850 temps.

96 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

114 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

126 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

144 hrs

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Check out the GFS Sunday AM surface temps.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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Here’s the GFS 168 hour snow chart.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Hum, think the 168 hour snow chart off the ECMWF is a little carried away!

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

How cold late week and this weekend?

Given what the GFS is printing out with 850 temps of -20 to -25 driving south down the Plains and into the Lower Midwest, don’t be surprised to see the first subzero lows into Minneapolis with highs struggling to get above 10. First single digits lows for Chicago with highs stuck in the mid teens.

Even the Big Cities could struggle to reach freezing for a day or two late weekend into early next week with lows dropping into the low 20s or teens. Single digits to near zero for some central Appalachian towns.

Low 20s for Atlanta while the freezing line gets close to the Gulf Coast again.

Will certainly be interesting to see whether the model eases off on this intensity of cold.

Here’s the ECMWF

120 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_120

144 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_144

168 hrs

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_168

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