This morning was hands down the coldest of fall so far in the Northern Plains and by Wednesday morning it will be all the way to Florida. The first subzero air of the season crossed the border into North Dakota with Minot AFB hitting -3. Many northern North Dakota towns today didn’t get much above 18, a solid 25-30 below normal.

Here was this morning’s lows.

Today’s highs.

As for snowfall, the focus is mainly along the arctic boundary that’s pushing south. There’s no actual system snow so amounts will be low but don’t be surprised to see a coating to perhaps 2 inches over parts of the OH Valley and higher amounts as the front crosses the Appalachians. Perhaps up to 6 inches or greater over favoured upslopes of  PA, MD, WV, VA, NC and we could see a couple of inches down as far as the North Georgia Mtns depending upon the amount of moisture available.

Snow is likely to fly through the air from Richmond up to Boston as the front sweeps through but don’t expect accumulation.

Here’s the 36 hr GFS snow.

As you would expect, the core of cold will be that bit further south and east over the next three morning’s and the coldest tomorrow morning will be Minnesota with subzero lows in the Arrowhead, even Minneapolis could get close to 10F.

Here’s the projected lows Tuesday morning according to TWC.

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Forecasted highs tomorrow.

Notice Chicago struggles to get above freezing and for most of the day it should stay below with 30s dominating the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valley.

Wednesday morning is likely to be the coldest across the greatest area with the freezing line getting close to the Gulf and Southeast coast. Here’s the surface chart and note the position of the arctic high.

With the 1040+mb arctic high establishing itself over the heart of the Midwest tomorrow with temperatures struggling at 20+ below normal under brilliant blue sky, this sets a cold base for what is likely to be a record cold night for many.

Here’s the projected lows Wed morning according to the GFS.

Close up of the Southeast

Thursday morning may be the coldest of all for south Alabama, Florida and the coastal Carolinas with the arctic high sitting overhead. Expect record cold highs as well as lows and if it doesn’t Wed, don’t be surprised to see 32 degrees in Mobile, Savannah and Charleston Thursday morning with 20s making it into North Florida.

While the Southeast endures the peak of the peak Wednesday into Thursday, the warming is already well underway further north with the return flow of southwest winds.

Even Stronger Arctic Outbreak Looming?

There is a considerable warm-up coming back for a time but indexes and modelling supports the idea that any warming is relatively short lived. The NAO/AO continues to show the return to negative and what very interesting is the CFSv2 is not only showing Canada frigid by the end of November into December but the model is taking that cold further and further south with each run. That would support the trend to negative in the indexes and it would also support an even stronger arctic blast into early December over the Plains, Midwest and likely East.

Check out the 3 to 4 week CFSv2.

Here’s the indexes

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