Cold Late November Pattern Looking Likely For Western Europe

Written by on November 9, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Tonight will easily be the coldest thus far across a wide swath of the UK thanks to clear skies, light winds and a chilly air mass which originated in Iceland just two days ago.

Expect overnight lows to widely drop to between -1 in the North of Ireland, Scotland and Northern England and +4C in the South within major towns and cities tonight. Rural areas will easily get to between -2 and -4, locally -5 to -7C.

This chill is merely stable atmosphere between lows, this is NOT a sign of a colder pattern by any means. As mentioned through the week, we warm up considerably by Monday as a surge of warmer air flows up from the Azores ahead of the next low which will bring wind and rain followed immediately by another slap of cooler air. The up and down process continues throughout the upcoming week but there are some more significant changes on the horizon according to the models.

High pressure is currently building over the UK and here’s the 5,000ft temperatures according to the ECMWF, supporting the coldest night of autumn so far.

ECM0-0

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Both indexes and modelling support building heights north and west of Ireland and the UK towards the 18-20th.

Check out the ECMWF 5,000ft level temperature charts below

Here comes the very push of warmth Monday!

48 hrs

ECM0-48

Then followed by the immediate slap of cold on the backside of the low.

72 hrs

ECM0-72

BUT, by around November 15th, the model has ridging building to the west while a trough deepens and expands west over Europe!!

144 hrs

ECM0-144

192 hrs

ECM0-192

216 hrs

ECM0-216

240 hrs

ECM0-240

LONG way out still and this can still back off completely but below is the GFS ensemble forecast for both NAO and AO which backs up the above ECMWF charts.

nao_sprd2

ao_sprd2

CFSv2 week 3 and 4 shows blocking over the pole and Greenland, also supporting the Europe trough and cold pattern.

wk3_wk4_20131105_z500

This if it comes will leave again into December. May stick around for 5-7 days but I don’t believe this is the start of true winter but more of a precursor of what’s to come later down the road.

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