Well well well, if you read my post from yesterday, I pretty much ruled out a major arctic blast and big Eastern snowstorm. Modelling has of course fallen in line with that very idea next week now and BOTH GFS and ECMWF agree on driving a truly impressive 1040mb surface high deep into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by 120 hours and so I must back track and change my overall thinking on this now.
My reason for ruling this possibly out last night and all but dismissing the arctic blast driving way south with a potential big Appalachian/East Coast snowstorm was based on what I was seeing with the indexes. +NAO and strongly +AO, sure they are showing a negative trend towards the end of the 15 day period but I didn’t they supported what the models were hinting at next week. In other words I thought it would be too early.
Sure I was seeing the Siberian connection which would ultimately fill Canada with super early season arctic air but with a strong Pacific jet roaring across the Northern Tier of the US, I didn’t see this charging south. There is still time for change BUT I admit it’s looking more likely that we could see one of the coldest November blasts and biggest November snowstorms for the East, oh, since the late 1980s. I believe 89 was a November to remember.
Check out the latest 168 hr ECMWF snow chart and note the heaviest snow centred over West Virginia, western Virginia.
GFS is on the right track.
Even if the snowstorm DOESN’T materialise, well the cold is coming and there looks to be plenty of records set to tumble through next week as that’s one heck of an arctic front coming south that’s for sure. A lot of the season why it’s going to be so cold is because the Canada snowpack has SIGNIFICANTLY expanded and so the Siberian air is weakened less.
This will be a late December type air mass diving south next week by the looks of it.
Now let’s take a look at the high coming down from Canada. I think I may need to eat my words on this folks..
Now the GFS 5,000ft level temps
Now here’s the ECMWF 5,000ft level temps.
Will have more tomorrow.
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